Breeders' Cup: Finding Vulnerable Favorites in the 2026 Breeders' Cup

The record of post-time favorites in the 14 Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar in 2025 closely mirrored the results of the 2024 edition at the same track. Last year, five post-time favorites won, three placed, and six ran out of the money.

Of the five winning favorites, two were mentioned in this space as potentially vulnerable. Not great foresight in hindsight, but that’s in the distant past as we look ahead to this year’s fixture at Keeneland on Friday and Saturday.

Here are three likely favorites on the Saturday card that look potentially vulnerable.

Ways and Means: Filly & Mare Sprint (G1)

From a consistency and speed figure perspective, Ways and Means should win this race. However, she simply hasn’t been as imposing outside her New York base as she has been on it.

The beaten favorite in the 2024 Filly & Mare Sprint at Del Mar, Ways and Means has run just five times since, her two losses coming in the last two editions of the Derby City Distaff (G1) at Churchill Downs. Granted, she returned from extended layoffs both times and perhaps isn't a fan of that surface in general, but the fact is she remains winless outside any New York track.

Note, too, that it took her more than a month to return to the worktab following her impressive win in the Aug. 29 Ballerina (G1). Perhaps that was by design, given she wasn’t going to start again before the Breeders’ Cup, but it gives additional cause for pause on a mare that has run so sporadically over the past two years.

Bacio: Turf Sprint (G1)

An undeniably fast horse, Bacio has risen far and fast since securing a second-level allowance victory against older rivals at Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby week. However, the quality and depth of the fields he was beating in England since then perhaps are a little overstated.

The Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap at Royal Ascot was not, in fact, a stakes, and the dash restricted to three-year-olds was indeed American-dominated. Bacio dazzled, but the runner-up there was the George Weaver-trained Sandal’s Song, who had previously placed in two of three stakes attempts and has not yet run back.

The Nunthorpe (G1) at York was far more prestigious, and Bacio used his early foot to separate himself from the pack early and won under a heavy 139-pound impost. Keep in mind, though, that the better European sprinters (e.g. Commanche Brave, Almeraq) were either not in the field or six-furlong specialists this season. 

Bacio did beat Starlust, the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner, but that has been the only time Starlust has placed in nine starts since that Turf Sprint upset at Del Mar. And the Nunthorpe third, Rumstar, is hardly considered top flight overseas.

Bacio still has to prove he can beat a world-class field while also overcoming more intense early pressure, which he will presumably face on Saturday. Whatever his off price, it figures to be too short to take with confidence.

Nitrogen: Distaff (G1)

Nitrogen would be a deserving winner of this race and is in the pole position for championship honors, but my concerns with her mirror those I have about Ways and Means.

In her dirt career, Nitrogen has been far more explosive in New York than she has elsewhere. While the record this year suggests she’s faster than she’s ever been, losses in last year’s Spinster (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Distaff, as well as early season losses in the Azeri (G2) and Apple Blossom H. (G1), were all outside New York and at times against generally inferior rivals.

There is not much depth to this Distaff, but Fully Subscribed figures to be more competitive against Nitrogen than in their Ogden Phipps (G1) encounter, and Splendora also has a lot of quality about her. As potentially one of the shortest prices on Breeders’ Cup weekend, I’m inclined to take Nitrogen on.