Churchill Downs: How to bet the $15,343 Super High 5 carryover

September 18th, 2022

How hard is it to hit the $1 Super High 5 at Churchill Downs? Well, the first three days of the September meet passed without anyone constructing a winning ticket, which means Sunday’s card boasts a $15,343 Super High 5 carryover.

The Super High 5 is available to bet in Race 10 (post time 5:26 p.m. ET), a one-mile maiden special weight for three-year-olds and older horses. A field of 11 has been entered, equating to 55,440 possible outcomes.

Among the experienced entrants, #3 Shipman (7-2) might be best. He’s hit the board in four straight maiden special weights, and while three of them came on turf, he ran second over the Churchill Downs main track back on July 1. The 82 Brisnet Speed rating he posted doesn’t stand out against Sunday’s field, but Shipman’s consistency figures to land him another strong finish.

For win purposes, however, we may want to lean toward first-time starters with greater potential to approach the 90 Brisnet Speed rating plateau that stands as the par winning figure for Sunday’s class level.

First and foremost is #11 Higginson (4-1), a stoutly bred son of Curlin out of the Grade 1-winning Medaglia d’Oro mare Dickinson. Higginson has put together a respectable work tab at Ellis Park (highlighted by a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :47 1/5), and trainer Brad Cox wins at an impressive 22% rate with horses debuting over one mile and longer.

#5 Lysander (3-1) is also worth a look. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott strikes at just a 5% rate with horses debuting over one mile or farther, but Lysander is bred top and bottom to run long and enters off a flashy series of workouts at Churchill Downs, including a bullet half-mile in :47 3/5.

#4 Electromagnetic (10-1) is a tough one to analyze from a stats perspective. Trainer Todd Pletcher strikes at a 20% rate with horses debuting over one mile or farther, but Pletcher rarely saddles first-time starters at Churchill, compiling a 1-for-10 (10%) record with such runners since 2017. On the bright side, Electromagnetic has a strong pedigree for route racing and will be ridden by hot jockey Julien Leparoux.

If we key Higginson on top of our tickets and emphasize Shipman underneath (with a healthy dose of Lysander and Electromagnetic, too), we should have a solid chance to hit the Super High 5.

  • $1 Super High 5: 11 with 3 with 2,5,8 with 1,2,4,5,8 with 1,2,4,5,8,10 ($48)
  • $1 Super High 5: 11 with 2,5,8 with 3 with 1,2,4,5,8 with 1,2,4,5,8,10 ($48)
    Total: $96

Good luck!