Churchill Downs: How to bet the $7,098 Super High 5 carryover in the Pocahontas

September 17th, 2022

It’s common for racetracks to toss up non-jackpot Super High 5 carryovers, but often the prize pools are up for grabs in difficult claiming races.

Churchill Downs, however, has managed an exception. Saturday’s $7,098 carryover in the $1 Super High 5 is available to chase in Race 11 (post time 5:58 p.m. ET), the $300,000 Pocahontas S. (G3). Held over 1 1/16 miles for two-year-old fillies, the Pocahontas serves as the first qualifying race on the 2022-23 Road to the Kentucky Oaks.

A dozen fillies have entered the Pocahontas, and you can make a case for many of them to vie for top-five finishes. The race is competitive to the point the four morning line favorites are listed between 4-1 and 5-1.

Slim favoritism may fall on the undefeated #11 Justa Warrior (4-1). The daughter of Triple Crown winner Justify dominated her debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Ellis Park, then came back to win the seven-furlong Ellis Park Debutante S. over the same track.

But with back-to-back 83 Brisnet Speed ratings under her belt, Justa Warrior isn’t the fastest filly in the Pocahontas field. #5 Grand Love (9-2), for example, posted an 88 when trouncing her debut at Saratoga last month. Breaking on top in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight, the Steve Asmussen trainee led all the way to score by 4 3/4 lengths. As a half-sister to late-maturing graded stakes winner Malibu Prayer and Valid, Grand Love is bred to improve with time and distance, so it’s unlikely we’ve seen her best yet. She looks ready to roll home on top in the Pocahontas.

#10 Fun and Feisty (6-1) is another fast filly. After finishing sixth and second in her first two starts, Fun and Feisty fired off a big effort in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last month, pouncing from off the pace to win by three lengths with an 87 Brisnet Speed rating. Trainer Kenny McPeek strikes at a 19% rate with last-out maiden winners, so Fun and Feisty has a chance to factor in the Pocahontas.

We’ll also lend support to #9 Jet Setting, a decisive 2 3/4-length maiden winner racing one mile at Ellis Park. Jet Setting is conditioned by two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox, whose runners often improve off their debuts.

If we key Grand Love on top and emphasize Justa Warrior, Fun and Feisty, and Jet Setting underneath, we should be able to construct a competitive Super High 5 ticket on a reasonable budget:

  • $1 Super High 5: 5 with 9,10,11 with 9,10,11 with 9,10,11 with 1,3,7,12 ($24)
  • $1 Super High 5: 5 with 9,10,11 with 9,10,11 with 1,3,7,12 with 9,10,11 ($24)
    Total: $48

Good luck!