Ed DeRosa's Keeneland Saturday Stakes Picks

Depending on the results it’s either fortunate or unfortunate placement for me outside either of the late Pick 4s or the Pick 5 because #10 Marchman is my best bet of the day and a single for in the three rolling Pick 3s that involve him.
Not all is lost on the lone “A” front, as four of the five Pick 5 races have just one horse in that column (it’s not listed because it’s not a stakes, but #7 Enchantress in the nightcap is a lone “A” with #s 4, 9, 11, 12 underneath).
In the TCA, I preferred #3 R Free Roll to Stonetastic just liking the inside draw but still slightly off the rail. They’re probably more an “A-“/”B+” vibe, though
In the First Lady, I think trainer Chad Brown is ready to click w/ his turf distaffers, and Stephanie’s Kitten last week will give way to Dayatthespa today. I can’t ignore the speed of either Discreet Marq or Istanford. Maybe they burn each other out (which I think sets up for Dayatthespa), but either is capable of getting brave. Filimbi I upgraded based on a solid Bruno With the Works Report.
The Claiborne Futurity will be a pretty even board, and I never like to use too many in those cases because while you think a $10 horse is good, when everyone is going 4 or 5 deep in the same race with the same horses, it plays much lower (especially since I like Wise Dan in the next). So the favorite I’m chucking is Carpe Diem, and I’ll lean on the three “A” picks with Mr. Z at 12-to-1 maybe adding some spice.
My thought on Wise Dan in the Shadwell Turf Mile is we already know he’s better than these. The “has he last a step” question is legitimate with any seven-year-old odds on horse, but I think he’s on his “A” game, and at equal weights he can put these away. From a wagering standpoint, I’d rather beat Seek Again underneath than Wise Dan on top.
BUT the good thing about being willing to lean on a Dayatthespa or Enchantress is I can definitely play a backup ticket against Wise Dan, and as I said, I prefer others to Seek Again, who I don’t think will spice up will pays commiserate to his win odds (i.e., if you like Seek Again he’s either a single and/or a win bet—not the type of horse you want to use on a deep ticket).
Good luck!
ALL-STAKES ABC grid
Race |
A |
B |
C |
5 |
10 |
5, 6 |
1, 3, 4 |
6 |
3 |
5 |
2, 7 |
7 |
7 |
1, 6, 8 |
|
8 |
6, 7, 10 |
4 |
5, 8, 9, 11, 12 |
9 |
6 |
3 |
1, 4, 5, 8 |
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