Fair Grounds: Betting for a nice payoff in the Pan Zareta

A full field of fillies and mares, dashing 5 1/2 furlongs over the turf course at Fair Grounds… I don’t know about you, but to me, that sounds like a recipe for a nice trifecta payoff.

Saturday’s $75,000 Pan Zareta S. at Fair Grounds looks like a beast of a race to handicap. Maybe #11 Into Mystic (5-2) has the edge after competing in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) and placing in the Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint (G3) and Buffalo Trace Franklin County (G3). But any advantage she holds is slim, especially considering she finished behind #1 Winning Envelope (5-1) in the Kentucky Downs Ladies’ Sprint.

Other logical contenders have chinks in their armor as well. #4 Play On (4-1) and #5 Change of Control (6-1) ran 1-2 in the 2019 Pan Zareta, but Play On hasn’t run since May, and Change of Control was soundly beaten in both the Kentucky Downs Ladies’ Sprint and the Buffalo Trace Franklin County. The stretch-running Winning Envelope has been known to fire off a big effort on her best day, but she finished behind Into Mystic and Change of Control when fifth in the Buffalo Trace Franklin County.

Are you confused yet? The point of highlighting all this conflicting form is to demonstrate how the Pan Zareta favorites are evenly-matched and keep taking turns beating each other. So rather than split hairs and try to predict which one will perform best on Saturday, why not think outside the box with #2 Elle Z (12-1) and #10 A Bit of Both (8-1)?

With just six starts under her belt, Elle Z still has plenty of upside. The daughter of City Zip is 2-for-4 in turf sprints, most recently wiring a 5 1/2-furlong allowance race at Keeneland after carving out fast fractions of :21.55 and :44.58. With several triple-digit Brisnet E1 and E2 Pace ratings under her belt, Elle Z is one of the fastest fillies in the Pan Zareta field, stamping her as a serious threat to steal the show for hot jockey/trainer duo Mitchell Murrill and Chris Hartman.

A Bit of Both always warrants respect. While she’s spent the majority of her career competing with success on dirt, she also boasts a 2-for-3 record on grass, highlighted by a victory in the 5 1/2-furlong Honey Bee S. at Monmouth Park last year.

Let’s put together a series of trifecta tickets pairing Elle Z and A Bit of Both with Into Mystic and the other logical favorites. If one or both of our longshots finish in the top three, we’ll be rewarded with a nice payoff.

$1 trifecta: 2,10 with 11 with 1,2,4,5,10 ($8)
$1 trifecta: 2,10 with 1,2,4,5,10 with 11 ($8)
$1 trifecta: 11 with 2,10 with 1,2,4,5,10 ($8)
$1 trifecta: 11 with 1,2,4,5,10 with 2,10 ($8)
Total: $32

Good luck!