Fair Grounds: Horse racing pick of the day for Nov. 27

Weekday picks and plays for Thoroughbred racing.

Friday, Nov. 27

Fair Grounds Race 6: Maiden special weight (1 mile and 70 yards, 4:31 p.m. ET)

The first-time starters #3 Stillchargingmaria (5-2) and #4 Social Dilemma (2-1) bring high-profile pedigrees to the mix, but debuting over a mile or farther on dirt can be a tough task. Steve Asmussen, who trains Stillchargingmaria, strikes at just a 13% rate when making this move. Al Stall, who conditions Social Dilemma, has gone 0-for-11 under these conditions in recent years.

With this in mind, #1 Carbis Bay (6-1) is an intriguing alternative. A stoutly-bred daughter of Curlin out of the graded stakes-winning router Penwith, Carbis Bay raced evenly to finish fourth in her debut sprinting seven furlongs at Laurel Park. The Godolphin homebred is eligible to improve while stretching out for trainer Michael Stidham, who strikes at a 23% rate with horses running long for the first time. Carbis Bay will also add Lasix to the equation on Friday, a successful move 30% of the time for Stidham.

Let’s let Carbis Bay to win and box her in the exacta with Stillchargingmaria and Social Dilemma.

$8 to win on #1 Carbis Bay
$2 exacta: 1 with 3,4 ($4)
$4 exacta: 3,4 with 1 ($8)
Total: $20

Good luck!