Five things to look for at the Saratoga meeting

The fantastic racing action at Saratoga Race Course will get underway on Thursday, July 15. Arguably the most anticipated meeting of the year, the Spa will play host to a staggering 76 stakes races, with more than $21 million combined in total purses for the black-type events. A total of 43 graded contests will take place through closing day, Sept. 6.

An ever-challenging handicapping puzzle will once again present itself at Saratoga, where horses from all across the country will converge to create big fields and ultra-competitive races. Below are a few of the things to look out for at the upstate New York attraction.

Trainers to watch

I could mention the household names of Chad Brown, Christophe Clement, et al, here. But two conditioners with a lower profile have particular interest to me this summer.

George Weaver sent out only two winners last summer at the Spa, but he did have 16 horses finish in the money from 37 starts. The horses from this barn have long been lively at the meeting as they are pointed specifically to excel at Saratoga. Weaver is unlikely to challenge for the trainers’ title due to barn size, but his presence will be felt this year, especially with juveniles on the turf.

James Bond had a fine 2020 stanza with 12 wins while clicking at a 30% win rate, with 63% of his entrants hitting the board. Those fine numbers will be difficult to sustain this season, although I fully envision horses from this shedrow to be aimed for success at the meeting. His winners went off at an average of 9-2 last year.

Jockeys to keep tabs on

All races in the Empire State go through the Ortiz brothers, Irad and Jose, and both left a mark at the meeting last campaign. Irad nipped Jose in the standings by one win - 59 to 58 - and they are sure to be getting a lot of photos taken in the winner’s circle in 2021.

Two additional pilots that I will tab for major success are Luis Saez and Tyler Gaffalione. Saez has been riding at an especially high level for years and gets assignments for a lot of powerful barns, as well. His agent is retired Saratoga training wizard Kiaran McLaughlin, so I expect him to have enough mounts to challenge for the title.

Gaffalione is a household name in Florida and Kentucky, and I expect him to be one in the Empire State in the near future, too. The highly-skilled jockey may not receive the volume of top mounts that some of his counterparts get, but he is as good as they get in my opinion. The budding superstar will win many races at Saratoga, often at good value. His winners averaged a return of $14.20 on a $2 play last meeting.

Pletcher’s pupils

The seven-time Eclipse Award winner has been the leading conditioner at Saratoga on a mind-numbing 13 different occasions, including in 2020 when he saddled 31 horses to victory. While he wasn’t as dominant with juvenile runners last year compared to previous seasons, this barn is always good for sending out numerous live runners in the baby races. And if they take early money on the toteboard, the youngsters will often fire a big one.

Speed

The racing at Saratoga is often kind to all types of runners. But with that said, the main surface in particular can be prone to biases on occasion. It’s impossible to predict ahead of time but is worth watching out for in the early races on any given day.

In sprint races on both turf and dirt, horses leading at the first call won at a high percentage in 2020. And the same trend was true in route races on the green, where quick runners drawn inside had a slight advantage on multiple occasions.

I have long tended to give an edge to runners with early gas at the meeting, especially in one-turn contests. And I will do the same in 2021, with one caveat. It was incredibly hard for runners breaking from the rail to win a turf sprint (5 percent). That will be factored into my handicapping. 

Star power

I could make a lengthy list of the star horses that are expected to grace the Spa with their presence, so I will just summarize. If a top Thoroughbred has a major summer goal, you will almost surely see them at Saratoga!