Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Tiny Tapper drops in class

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Sept. 8 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Assiniboia Downs, along with a horse to single in the $544 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 15% Profit Boost Tokens at Horseshoe Indianapolis: Opt in to receive five 15% Profit Boost Tokens (maximum payout $25 per token) for win wagers at Horseshoe Indianapolis on Tuesday, Sept. 1.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $72 Presque Isle Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 9/11 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $200 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 9/12 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge
• $100 Mountaineer Feeder to 9/18 Churchill Downs BCBC Bonus Feeder

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: $40,000 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs on turf, 4:14 p.m. ET)

#6 Tiny Tapper (8-1) showed some tactical speed when debuting in a 5 1/2-furlong $50,000 maiden optional claimer at Ellis Park. However, she tired to finish 10th by a wide margin.

Dropping in class and shipping to Horseshoe Indianapolis may unlock improvement from Tiny Tapper. At 8-1, the daughter of American Pharoah is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #6 Tiny Tapper (8-1)
• #8 Lady Maximum (2-1)
• #9 Angel Life (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Tiny Tapper

Assiniboia Downs: Race 3: Osiris S. (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#3 My Kid’s Said No (2-5) boasts a win and two thirds from three starts against stakes competition. In her lone start at Assiniboia Downs, she smashed the five-furlong Debutante S. by 11 3/4 lengths with a flashy 77 Brisnet Speed rating.

My Kid’s Said No owns the two highest Brisnet Speed ratings in the Osiris field and should be tough to beat while returning to Assiniboia Downs. Let’s key her on top of Canterbury Park maiden special weight winner #5 Midnight Bullet (8-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #3 My Kid’s Said No (2-5)
• #5 Midnight Bullet (8-1)
• #2 Solid Connection (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 3 with 5

Assiniboia Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 9:50 p.m. ET)

#4 Deputize (6-1) is an unraced two-year-old from the barn of Michael Nault, who wins at a powerful 39% rate with first-time starters.

Deputize brings a lengthy string of workouts to his debut and is slated to be ridden by Antonio Whitehall, a 29% winner teaming up with Nault over the last two months.

At 6-1, Deputize is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #4 Deputize (6-1)
• #5 C J’s Mayzee (2-1)
• #1 Born to Succeed (12-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #4 Deputize

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $544 Pick 5 carryover (4:51 p.m. ET)

No one solved the 50-cent Late Pick 5 on Labor Day at Presque Isle Downs, which means the first day of post-holiday racing features a $544 Late Pick 5 carryover.

Mathematically speaking, this Pick 5 looks manageable to solve. The five races have drawn only 36 horses (averaging 7.2 per race), which works out to 18,522 possible outcomes before scratches.

The sequence gets underway in Race 4, a $6,250 claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. Only seven horses have entered, and morning-line favorite #3 She’s Lit (5-2) looks like a viable single to build tickets around.

Best single: Race 4: #3 She’s Lit (5-2)

She’s Lit spent her first seven starts competing with limited success in Florida. Her only top-three finish came in a $16,000 maiden claimer racing 1 1/16 miles on turf, in which she ran second.

But She’s Lit has proven more competitive since taking her game to the Tapeta track at Presque Isle Downs. She hasn’t missed the trifecta in three starts over this track. After finishing third and first in a pair six-furlong $15,000 maiden claimers, She’s Lit tackled a six-furlong $12,500 claimer for non-winners of two races and came home third.

Those three efforts earned consistent Brisnet Speed ratings in the 65-69 range, right around the par winning number (68) for Tuesday’s conditions. Take note, none of the other entrants in Race 4 have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 66 in their last three starts apiece, so a typical performance from She’s Lit while dropping into a $6,250 claimer should make the three-year-old filly tough to beat.

Adding to the appeal are positive trainer and jockey stats. Trainer Randall Russell has been hot at Presque Isle Downs this meet, winning at a 27% rate. Jockey Gaddiel Martinez has likewise enjoyed strong success at this meet, compiling a 23% win rate.

For all these reasons, She’s Lit is a compelling single to start the Late Pick 5. By singling her, you’ll slice the number of possible outcomes to consider from 18,522 down to 2,646, a solid start toward assembling a competitive (and hopefully winning) ticket.

Good luck!