Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Tamara can win her return

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Nov. 15 at Churchill Downs and Del Mar, along with tickets for Gulfstream Park’s $2,546 Super High 5 carryover.

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• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• Churchill Downs $3,000 Three Pick 3 Hit It & Split It: Hit three Pick 3s at Churchill Downs on any day of the fall meet to split a $3,000 daily prize pool, starting Oct. 30.
• Tournaments November 25% Bankroll Cash Back: Wager your entire starting tournament bankroll during the duration of selected tournaments throughout November and receive 25% cash back.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 7: $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 3:55 p.m. ET)

The fastest of the seven juvenile fillies entered in this allowance sprint is #3 Amarth (2-1), who posted a field-best 83 Brisnet Speed rating when pressing a solid pace on her way to victory in a maiden special weight sprinting about seven furlongs at Keeneland.

That was a nice improvement off Amarth’s seventh-place debut. Trainer Eddie Kenneally wins at a lofty 24% rate with horses stretching out to a route distance off back-to-back sprints, so let’s place a win bet on Amarth.

Selections

• #3 Amarth (2-1)
• #6 Eunomia (5-2)
• #1 Quinn’s Promise (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Amarth

Del Mar: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 6:03 p.m. ET)

#9 Cullen J (2-1) finished fourth when debuting against non-state-restricted maiden special weight competition over this course and distance, then dropped into the California-bred ranks to finish second in a six-furlong turf maiden special weight at Santa Anita.

Those efforts yielded sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 76 and 73. Friday’s contest is restricted to horses bred in California, so Cullen J should find the conditions optimal for securing victory. Let’s single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #9 Cullen J (2-1)
• #8 Sogno Di Vino (8-1)
• #5 Ten Figures (12-1)

Wagers

• $25 Double: 9 with 1

Del Mar: Race 7: $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 6:33 p.m. ET)

#1 Tamara (4-5) went 2-for-2 at Del Mar as a juvenile last year, winning her debut before dominating the Del Mar Debutante (G1) by 6 3/4 lengths. She was favored to end the year with a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) triumph, but finished seventh at 4-5 and emerged from the race with an injured splint bone.

Tamara hasn’t run since, but she’s turned in a bevy of sharp workouts in preparation for her return, including six furlongs in 1:11 2/5 at Del Mar. We’ll count on Tamara to win her comeback, singling her to conclude our double wager and betting her over 2023 Anoakia S. winner #6 Sandy Bottom (5-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Tamara (4-5)
• #6 Sandy Bottom (5-2)
• #4 Cliquish (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 6

Carryover Watch

Gulfstream Park: Race 9: $2,546 Super High 5 carryover (4:38 p.m. ET)

If you can select the top five finishers, in order, in Friday’s ninth race at Gulfstream Park, you’ll win a share of a $2,546 Super High 5 carryover.

The prize pool is up for grabs in race 9, an $8,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races. The six-furlong dirt dash has drawn a seemingly wide-open field containing 15,120 possible outcomes before scratches.

After sorting through the contenders, #7 Cadron Settlement (4-1) looks like a horse worth building tickets around. He owns the best recent Brisnet Speed ratings in this field and has proven on multiple occasions to be a good fit for this class level.

Cadron Settlement broke his maiden in a $12,500 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Gulfstream Park, earning an 81 Brisnet Speed rating. He matched that number when finishing third in a seven-furlong $8,000 claimer for non-winners of two races, in which he finished a nose behind runner-up #6 First Team (8-1).

Cadron Settlement subsequently turned the tables on First Team when tackling another seven-furlong $8,000 claimer for non-winners of two races, finishing second by 6 1/4 lengths while First Team checked in another two lengths back in third place. That effort earned Cadron Settlement a 73 Brisnet Speed rating.

Cutting back to six furlongs on Friday should suit Cadron Settlement just fine. A top-two finish appears likely, so we suggest betting the Super High 5 accordingly, keying Cadron Settlement to finish either first or second.

Who should you use underneath? The above-mentioned First Team must be included. #5 Cacique Abarrio (9-2) is another logical contender; while he rarely competes on dirt, last spring he finished a pacesetting fourth in a one-mile $35,000 claimer for non-winners of two races, and dropping down in class should make him competitive here.

#3 Amazing Woo (3-1) can also factor after winning a $12,500 maiden claimer dashing six furlongs at Gulfstream last time out.

• $1 Super High 5: 7 with 5 with 3,6 with 2,3,4,6,9 with 2,3,4,6,9 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 7 with 3 with 5 with 2,4,6,8 with 2,4,6,8 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 7 with 3,6 with 2,3,4,6,9 with 2,3,4,6,9 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 7 with 5 with 2,4,6,8 with 2,4,6,8 ($12)
  Total: $72

Good luck!