Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Three big Pick 6 carryovers

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Oct. 16 at Keeneland, along with horses to use a trio of lucrative Pick 6 carryovers at Keeneland, Belmont Park, and Santa Anita.

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• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 4x Rewards Points at Belmont Park: Opt in and receive 4x rewards points on all wagers at Belmont Park each racing Friday in October.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in October.
• $3,000 $3 Turf Pick 3 Hit It & Split It at Keeneland: Opt in and hit the $3 Turf Pick 3 at Keeneland for a chance to split a $3,000 prize pool each racing Friday in October.
• $50 Late Pick 4 Insurance for Australian Racing: Opt in to receive up to $50 back on your Late Pick 4 wagers at select Australian racetracks if you have three out of four winning legs.
• 4% Cash Back on Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge: Opt in and receive 4% cash back on your Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) entry purchased through TwinSpires when you have previously competed in any BCBC qualifier, hosted by TwinSpires or any other operator.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $80 Keeneland Bet and Set Feeder to 10/24 Keeneland BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $80 Laurel Park Feeder to 10/18 Laurel Park Maryland Million Qualifier
• $50 Belmont Park Challenge
• $200 Belmont Park Feeder to 10/24 Keeneland BCBC Bonus Qualifier
• $40 Keeneland Challenge
• $400 Keeneland Bonus Feeder to 10/17 Keeneland KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $150 Keeneland Challenge
• $40 Remington Park Challenge
• $200 Remington Park Feeder to 10/25 Churchill Downs BCBC Bonus Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 2: $100,000 Maiden Claiming (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 1:32 p.m. ET)

#5 Flaming Rainbow (5-2) ran well when last seen in a one-mile maiden special weight at Ellis Park. He rallied from near the back of a seven-horse field to finish second, beaten only 2 1/4 lengths.

Flaming Rainbow’s pedigree offers potential for success while stretching out around two turns, and trainer Kenny McPeek wins at a 21% rate with horses tackling the maiden claiming ranks for the first time, so Friday’s conditions should suit Flaming Rainbow perfectly.

We’ll place a win bet on Flaming Rainbow and key him over #3 Throttle (7-5) in an exacta.

Selections

• #5 Flaming Rainbow (5-2)
• #3 Throttle (7-5)
• #4 Summit Ridge (7-2)

Wagers

• $24 to win on #5 Flaming Rainbow
• $6 Exacta: 5 with 3
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 3: $40,000 Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:04 p.m. ET)

#3 Red Sun (8-1) has faltered in three tries against non-claiming competition, including one stakes. But he’s run well in both of his claiming starts. He trounced a 5 1/2-furlong $50,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs by 3 1/2 lengths, and last time out, he ran second in a six-furlong $50,000 claimer at Churchill.

Dropping down to the $40,000 level may help Red Sun vie for victory, so at 8-1, he’s worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #3 Red Sun (8-1)
• #7 No Caller Id (6-1)
• #5 Booray (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Red Sun

Keeneland: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs on dirt, 4:12 p.m. ET)

#12 Fumed (5-2) ran well when making her dirt debut in a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last month. She set the pace and led clearly for much of the race before tiring in the final furlong to finish third behind Oh She Said Yes, who subsequently finished third in a fast renewal of the Alcibiades (G1).

Cutting back to seven furlongs at Keeneland should help Fumed visit the winner’s circle. A large win bet is in order, along with an exacta using #2 Sweet Venture (4-1) for second place.

Selections

• #12 Fumed (5-2)
• #2 Sweet Venture (4-1)
• #5 Baby Beach (8-1)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #12 Fumed
• $10 Exacta: 12 with 2
  Total: $50

Carryover Watch

Belmont Park: Race 4: $113,350 Pick 6 carryover (2:49 p.m. ET)

The $1 Pick 6 at Belmont Park has accumulated a huge $113,350 carryover, which is up for grabs on Friday.

Need help constructing your tickets? We recommend singling #2 Papa Yo (8-5) in Race 7, a 1 1/16-mile dirt allowance featuring a field of seven older horses.

There isn’t much pace in the race on paper, which should lend an advantage to Papa Yo. He’s vied for the early lead in four of his last five starts, including when finishing third in a 1 1/8-mile allowance at Saratoga last month.

Papa Yo brings sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and should be tough to catch if he secures an uncontested lead.

Keeneland: Race 5: $26,909 Pick 6 carryover (3:08 p.m. ET)

If you’re planning to play Friday’s $26,909 carryover in the $1 Pick 6 at Keeneland, we recommend singling #12 Fumed (5-2) in Race 7.

We’ve already outlined our case for Fumed as a compelling choice to win the seven-furlong maiden special weight, and her credentials look strong enough to warrant single status.

Santa Anita: Race 4: $54,223 Pick 6 carryover (5:30 p.m. ET)

Friday’s $2 Pick 6 at Santa Anita, which features a $54,233 carryover, looks tough to solve. A competitive sequence of races is on the agenda.

Some bettors may aim to reduce ticket costs by singling #5 Mystic Moses (8-5) in Race 6, a $12,500 maiden claimer for California-breds. Mystic Moses owns the four highest Brisnet Speed ratings in the field and has placed multiple times against maiden special weight company, but he’s run well below his best in both his starts this season, suggesting he isn’t a lock to win Race 6 even while dropping in class. #6 He’s Got Fire (4-1), who has cracked the trifecta in three straight $12,500 claimers, could have upset potential.

One non-favored runner we strongly recommend using in the Pick 6 is #5 Daring Pursuit (9-2) in Race 7, a $50,000 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares racing 1 1/4 miles on turf. There isn’t much pace in the field on paper, so Daring Pursuit—who recently employed pace-tracking tactics to win a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight at Del Mar—is eligible to shake loose on an uncontested lead and wire the field. Perhaps she isn’t quite single-worthy, but if she scores at 9-2, you’ll be glad to have her on your tickets.

Good luck!