Gulfstream: Analyzing the $98,693 Pick 6 mandatory payout

A couple of enticing carryovers, including a mandatory-payout Pick 6, are on the agenda for Sunday at Gulfstream Park.

Gulfstream Park, Race 5: $98,693 Rainbow Pick 6 mandatory payout (2:56 p.m. ET)

The highlight of Sunday’s betting action is the mandatory payout of a $98,693 Rainbow Pick 6 carryover. The final pool for the 20-cent wager is projected to exceed $1 million.

One of the most challenging Pick 6 legs to handicap is Race 6, a six-furlong maiden special weight for two-year-olds. Jose D’Angelo trains the two favorites, #5 Thaar (8-5) and #4 Malbec (2-1). Although Thaar is a shorter price on the morning line, jockey stats suggest Malbec might be the stable’s top contender.

Malbec, a second-time starter who ran fourth in his debut over this track and class level, is slated to be ridden by Edgard Zayas, who has gone 9-for-27 (33%) teaming up with D’Angelo over the last two months. In contrast, first-time starter Thaar will be guided by Emisael Jaramillo, who has gone 1-for-20 (5%) with D’Angelo during the same timeframe.

Throw in the fact D’Angelo’s modest win rate with first-time starters (10%) jumps to 18% with second-time starters, and the advantage tilts even more toward Malbec. As a result, we prefer Malbec and are tempted to leave Thaar off our Pick 6 tickets.

There are, however, a couple of other first-time starters worth including alongside Malbec. #2 Trelawny (7-2) and #7 Redland Rebels (8-1) are trained by Jose Pinchin and Patrick Biancone, who have respectively gone 2-for-9 (22%) and 3-for-13 (23%) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Gulfstream since 2022.

Gulfstream Park, Race 10: $5,897 Super High 5 carryover (5:52 p.m. ET)

The final leg of the Pick 6 is Race 10, a $25,000 maiden claimer taking place over 5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta. It’s also the race in which a $5,897 Super High 5 carryover is up for grabs.

Our top choice is #7 No Bills Campaign (2-1). He misfired in a recent turf route, but two starts back—in his debut—he finished fifth by 3 3/4 lengths in a 5 1/2-furlong Tapeta maiden special weight for three-year-olds, earning a strong 80 Brisnet Speed rating only one point lower than the par winning number for Sunday’s conditions.

Returning to the track and distance of his debut should trigger a rebound from No Bills Campaign, who has been gelded since his poor showing on turf. Dropping in class should help too, especially since trainer Kent Sweezey wins at a 29% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company.

Pick 6 bettors might want to mix in #5 Sigan Viendo (7-2), another three-year-old dropping in class, as backup. But Super High 5 bettors seeking to keep tickets affordable should consider taking a stand and keying No Bills Campaign on top.

Good luck!