Gulfstream Park: How to bet the Rampart Stakes

Determining the most likely winner of Saturday’s $100,000 Rampart (G3) at Gulfstream Park is easier said than done. It’s not even clear who will start as the favorite.

At first glance, the Rampart doesn’t seem like a particularly difficult race to handicap.

The 1-mile event drew just six starters, with the Grade 1-placed #3 Sally’s Curlin looming as the most decorated. The winner of the 7-furlong Hurricane Bertie (G3) over this track last winter, Sally’s Curlin will drop in class, off a seventh-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprit (G1), and should enjoy the return to Gulfstream.

But Sally’s Curlin is a deep closer at the mercy of early pace, and in recent starts she has been falling farther behind the early leaders. Her decreased positional speed is concerning, especially against a small field in the Rampart.

#2 Bajan Girl looms as an up-and-coming alternative, after she dominated a pair of 1-mile allowance races at Gulfstream Park West by 12 1/4 and 9 1/4 lengths. The daughter of Speightstown has been a different horse since she returned from a five-month layoff in October and has displayed dramatically improved tactical speed. But can she replicate her impressive allowance form with the transition to Gulfstream Park and a step up in class?

Bajan Girl figures to face pace pressure from #5 Letruska, a pure frontrunner, who wired Saratoga’s 1 1/8-mile Shuvee (G3) during the summer. Letruska is undefeated in two starts over the Gulfstream main track, where she carved out splits of :23.29, :44.96, and 1:08.80 to win the 1-mile Added Elegance S. by 2 1/2 lengths, over next-out stakes winner Nonna Madeline.

Letruska enters the Rampart off a fourth-place effort against elite competition in the 1 1/8-mile Beldame (G2) at Belmont Park, a race where she ran off to a seven-length lead and understandably weakened down the lane. The drop in class, and the return to the track and distance of the Added Elegance, should make Letruska a dangerous contender.

I’ll take a stand and key Letruska on top in the trifecta. Underneath, I’ll favor Bajan Girl and Sally’s Curlin.

$2 trifecta: 5 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,4,6 ($16)
$2 trifecta: 5 with 1,2,3,4,6 with 2,3 ($16)
Total: $32

Good luck!