Handicapping the Gravesend Stakes at Aqueduct

Which horse(s) should you bet in Saturday’s $100,000 Gravesend S. at Aqueduct? That’s a tough question.

The 6 1/2-furlong sprint has drawn a small but competitive group of five horses. Let’s review the field in horse-by-horse fashion and rank them from "1" (most likely winner) to "5" (least likely winner). Once we complete our ratings, we’ll plan an appropriate wagering strategy to reflect our opinions.

#1 Happy Farm (4-1)

Gelded son of Ghostzapper has cracked the exacta in seven of his eight starts at Aqueduct and was in fine form over this track last winter, winning the Fall Highweight H. (G3) before finishing second in the Gravesend and Tom Fool H. (G3). With back-to-back triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings under his belt, Happy Farm looms as the fastest horse on paper. He’s also the lone front-runner, setting the stage for a favorable trip.

Happy Farm hasn’t run since March and will be making his first start for trainer Linda Rice, two significant questions he’ll have to answer. But Rice wins at a 21% rate with new acquisitions, and hot jockey Jose Lezcano (a 22% winner at Aqueduct) is slated to ride, so there’s no reason to think Happy Farm won’t fire a big shot off the layoff.

Rating: 1

#2 Drafted (8-1)

Although Drafted has won multiple Group 3 races in Dubai, his recent form has been disappointing. The 7-year-old gelding went 0-for-4 in 2020 and enters the Gravesend off a fifth-place effort in the Fall Highweight H. (G3), suggesting he’ll need a form turnaround to vie for victory.

Rating: 5

#3 Pete’s Play Call (5-2)

An 8-year-old son of talented sprinter/miler Munnings, Pete’s Play Call has shown promising form against allowance optional claiming company in recent starts. Claimed for $62,500 out of a recent victory sprinting 6 furlongs at Aqueduct, Pete’s Play Call is now under the care of trainer Rudy Rodriguez, who wins at a 26% rate with new claiming acquisitions. A top-three finish is within reach if Pete’s Play Call takes a step forward.

Rating: 4

#4 My Boy Tate (2-1)

A three-time stakes winner against fellow New York-breds, My Boy Tate will face tougher competition in the Gravesend. But the 7-year-old gelding has thrown down triple-digit Brisnet Late Pace ratings in three of his last four starts, and his 9-5-2-1 record at Aqueduct demonstrates a clear affinity for the local oval. My Boy Tate was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Stan the Man in the Tale of the Cat S. at Saratoga during the summer and can certainly vie for a top-three finish on Saturday.

Rating: 3

#5 Stan the Man (9-5)

Happy Farm’s most formidable challenger enters off a runner-up effort in the Fall Highweight H. (G3), where he charged hard late to finish less than a length behind the winner. The 7-year-old veteran has placed four times against graded stakes company and possesses tactical speed coupled with versatility, so he’s capable of racing effectively from anywhere in the pack. But can he reel in Happy Farm if the latter shakes loose on an uncontested lead?

Rating: 2

The ticket

Let’s play a trifecta using Happy Farm on top and Stan the Man for the runner-up spot. Underneath, we’ll use Pete’s Play Call and My Boy Tate equally for third place.

$15 trifecta: 1 with 5 with 3,4 ($30)

Good luck!