Hanson: Betting the Kentucky Derby and 2000 Guineas

The announcement late Thursday that Baeza has made the main body of the Kentucky Derby (G1) field following the withdrawal of Rodriguez has slightly changed our betting plans. Baeza was not our top selection, but his presence now makes it difficult to dismiss his chances at earning a share.

The horse that beat Baeza in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), morning line favorite #8 Journalism (3-1), remains our top selection. His attributes are well known. He's consistently earned the highest Brisnet Speed ratings of anyone in the Derby field this season. If he runs back to either his San Felipe (G2) or Santa Anita Derby (G1) performance, he will be difficult to beat, all things being equal.

All things are not equal, though. Forecasted rain into the weekend at Churchill Downs could change the race's complexion in a hurry, but how does one handicap ahead of time for a factor so uncertain? More importantly, arguably, will be the trip Journalism works out. If he can get a clean one in what will easily be the most congested field he's ever faced, he looks as solid on paper as California Chrome did 11 years ago, in my estimation.

There's hope, too, that a potential wet track might not be all bad for Journalism. There aren't many in the field with wet track form anyway, and being a son of Curlin, you'd think he'd take to it well.

RELATED: Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Journalism

Despite Rodriguez's defection, the pace still projects to be honest, and possibly very strong. That will help not only Journalism, but potentially the capable closer #9 Burnham Square (12-1) and midpack stalker #21 Baeza (12-1).

Burnham Square figures to relish the added distance after only just getting up to win the nine-furlong Blue Grass (G1). The Liam's Map gelding is clearly entering the Derby on a form upswing. Baeza, a half-brother to Derby winner Mage and Belmont (G1) winner Dornoch, might lack the seasoning to win the Derby at this stage of his career, but he has tremendous upside.

On a $50 budget, I will play Journalism to win and key him on top of Burnham Square, Grande, and Baeza in exactas.

Kentucky Derby wagers

• $30 to win on #8 Journalism
• $10 Exacta: 8 with 9,21 ($20)

Newmarket Race 5: 2000 Guineas (G1), 10:35 a.m. ET

As is my custom, I'll start Kentucky Derby Day taking a swing at England's first classic of the season, the one-mile 2000 Guineas (G1) at Newmarket.

The Guineas is the only English classic legendary trainer John Gosden has yet to win, but he has a strong chance this year with morning line favorite Field of Gold, who impressively won his season debut in the Craven (G3) over the course and distance on April 16.

The time to have Field of Gold, however, was arguably Craven Day, as his price has understandably shortened in the intervening 2 1/2 weeks. Instead, I'll search for value elsewhere.

#5 Ruling Court (4-1), one of the three Godolphin entries, impressively captured his debut at Sandown last July by more than five lengths, but wasn't quite as sharp when favored in the Acomb (G3) at York, finishing third to Coolmore's top juvenile The Lion in Winter. The fact Ruling Court didn't run again the rest of the season suggests something might have gone amiss afterwards.

Ruling Court reappeared in Dubai's turf version of the 2000 Guineas at Meydan on March 1 and looked spectacular, overpowering a modest field by six lengths. He will need to run even better against this stronger group, but the son of Justify remains with a high ceiling and should get his preferred fast ground over the Rowley Mile.

My British bankroll for the season stands at $437.80, so my 5% of balance win play will be for $22.

2000 Guineas wagers

• $22 to win on #5 Ruling Court

I'd be remiss if I didn't also casually mention Godolphin longshot #9 Tornado Alert (60-1), who is getting no love from the betting public overseas, perhaps rightly. He's run exclusively over the all-weather and hasn't run at all since early October, when he caught a little bit of the eye when graduating at Newcastle. Needless to say, he hasn't faced very good company in two starts.

But there's something oddly intriguing about this Saeed bin Suroor trainee, mostly from a pedigree perspective. He's by the talented miler Too Darn Hot and out of a half-sister to Master of the Seas, who narrowly lost the 2000 Guineas himself but later went on to win the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) and other top races. Tornado Alert is also a half-brother to Just Fine, a Group 1 winner in Australia.

Why is Tornado Alert here if not for the belief he has the ability to greatly outrun expectations? We shall see, but a small each-way bet wouldn't be out of order.

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