Holland's North American free racing picks for Nov. 5

With the Breeders' Cup just one day away, Tim Holland offers his expert picks across North America at Churchill Downs, Gulfstream Park West, and Indiana Grand.

Churchill Downs

Race 1

Trainer Hough wins with 18% of his first-time starters and saddles #6 Augusta Melody (10-1), a debuting son of 16% first-out sire Speightstown who is out of Honorable Miss (G2) winner Tar Heel Mom. Dark bay is a half-brother to one winner and has been working well for Hough, who wins with 21% of his maiden claimers. Dark bay is likely ready for a good first outing with Bejarano riding.

Race 7

#12 Warrior In Chief (10-1) hung late after making progress from just off the pace when fourth in his debut as the favorite at Keeneland last month. Trainer McPeek wins with 16% of his second-time starters and with 18% of his runners that were beaten as the favorite last time out. Bay can be in good early position from the outside post with Albarado remaining aboard.

Gulfstream Park West

Race 6

Mark Casse wins with 17% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days and saddles #8 Catch a Thrill (5-2), who was last seen finishing second as the favorite after pressing the early pace at this level and distance at Gulfstream in mid-September. Daughter of City Zip has won one eight starts on turf for Casse, who wins with 16% of his runners on grass. 4-year-old can be in good position throughout under Jaramillo, who has won with one of his last four rides for the barn.

Indiana Grand

Race 7

Allowance runners on grass include #1 Leading the Charge (5-2), who returns to state-bred company off a closing fourth-place finish over 1 1/16 miles here last month. Son of Suntracer has won one of four starts on this turf and trainer Dobbs wins with 12% of his runners on grass and has won with 13% of his starters at this meet. Gelding can be along from off the pace with Sanjur retaining the mount.