Holland's North American free racing picks for Oct. 11

Handicapper Tim Holland has picks for Belmont Park and Keeneland on Sunday.

Keeneland

Race 3

#5 Mi Tres Por Ciento (4-1) comes off a fourth-place finish over a mile at Gulfstream in mid-August in his second start since being claimed by Mike Maker. Chestnut has won 11-of-43 career starts and Maker wins with 17% of his runners that have not raced for 46-90 days. Gelding has tactical speed and can be in good position throughout under Gaffalione, who has won with 26% of his rides for the barn in the past two months.

Race 7

Trainer Hough wins with 19% of his first-time starters and saddles #10 Holy Redeemer (6-1), a debuting son of 13% first-out sire Blame and out of a half-sister to Social Inclusion, who finished third in the Preakness (G1). Colt cost $300K as a yearling and has been working well for Hough, who has won with 24% of his runners this year. Bay appears ready for a good first outing with Castellano taking the mount.

Belmont Park

Race 2

Maidens sprinting on grass include #3 Tanners Neck Lane (15-1), a debuting son of promising young sire Laoban, whose offspring have won 33% of their starts on turf. Dark bay has posted some sharp works and trainer Nevin has won with five of her first 17 runners at this meet. Colt is worth a look at decent odds under Carmouche, who has won with three of his last eight rides for this barn.

Race 3

#6 Mischief Reigns (15-1) was not a factor after a slow start in her debut at Saratoga in early-August, but trainer Albertrani wins with 16% of his second-time starters and with 12% that have not raced for 46-90 days. Daughter of Into Mischief is a half-sister to two winners on grass and has worked well since her first outing for Albertrani, who has won with two of his first nine runners at this meet. Filly can show more here with Carmouche in the saddle.