Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $70,118 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Oct. 20 at Finger Lakes and Presque Isle Downs, along with horses to play in the $70,118 Pick 5 carryover at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 15% Profit Boost Tokens at Horseshoe Indianapolis: Opt in to receive five 15% profit boost tokens (maximum boost of $25 per token) for win wagers at Horseshoe Indianapolis on Tuesday, Oct. 13.
• 8x Rewards Points at Red Shores: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Red Shores Charlottetown and Red Shores Summerside each racing day from Sept. 19 through Oct. 31.
• 4% Cash Back on Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge: Opt in and receive 4% cash back on your Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) entry purchased through TwinSpires when you have previously competed in any BCBC qualifier, hosted by TwinSpires or any other operator.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $72 Presque Isle Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 10/24 Keeneland BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $200 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 10/24 Keeneland BCBC Bonus Qualifier
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge
• $200 Mountaineer Feeder to 10/25 Churchill Downs BCBC Bonus Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 2: $11,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:24 p.m. ET)

#2 Solo Belle (5-2) has spent her first two starts competing on the New York Racing Association circuit. Plunging in class from a $40,000 maiden claimer at Belmont Park into an $11,000 maiden claimer at Finger Lakes may unlock a winning performance. It helps that trainer Amelia Green has been on fire at Finger Lakes this meet, going 4-for-6 (67%).

#4 Tiz’s Cupcake (2-1), exiting a fourth-place finish in a Finger Lakes maiden special weight, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Solo Belle (5-2)
• #4 Tiz’s Cupcake (2-1)
• #1 Nice Try Cat (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 2 with 4

Finger Lakes: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 3:20 p.m. ET)

#1 Johnny Castle (5-1) is an unraced two-year-old trained by M. Anthony Ferraro, who strikes at a 23% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights. Encouraging workouts (including a bullet five furlongs in 1:02 1/5) suggest Johnny Castle has some ability and is a threat to win first-time out under hot jockey Keiber Coa.

At 5-1, a win bet is in order. We’ll also bet an exacta using #4 Bajan Sugar (5-2) for second place.

Selections

• #1 Johnny Castle (5-1)
• #4 Bajan Sugar (5-2)
• #3 Locked Horns (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Johnny Castle
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 4
  Total: $25

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 3:30 p.m. ET)

#4 An Album Cover (7-2) is a threat to strike first-time out for trainer Tim Girten, who wins at a 23% rate with horses debuting at the maiden special weight level.

An Album Cover recently breezed a bullet five furlongs from the Presque Isle starting gate in 1:00 3/5. He’s slated to be ridden by hot jockey Israel Rodriguez (a 33% winner teaming up with Girten over the last two months), so let’s bet An Album Cover to win and key him over #3 Quinntopia (3-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #4 An Album Cover (7-2)
• #3 Quinntopia (3-1)
• #1 Gospel of Luke (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 An Album Cover
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 3
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: $70,118 Pick 5 carryover (3:43 p.m. ET)

The Tuesday card at Horseshoe Indianapolis is highlighted by a lucrative $70,118 carryover in the 50-cent Late Pick 5. It isn’t every day Thoroughbred bettors can chase a non-jackpot, ~$70,000 carryover on a Tuesday, so this is an opportunity you won’t want to miss.

If you wish to win a share of the carryover, you’ll have to decipher a challenging Pick 5 sequence containing 57 horses (averaging 11.4 per race) and 168,480 possible outcomes before scratches.

Some bettors may opt to build tickets around #1 Whakaari (1-1) as a short-priced single in Race 6, a maiden special weight for Indiana-bred fillies and mares racing one mile on turf. Whakaari is certainly a logical contender after finishing second in all three of her tries at this course and class level. Among the experienced turf runners entered in Race 6, Whakaari is a clear standout.

But #2 Athenaeum (9-2) may have upset potential. She’s competed exclusively on dirt so far, but her pedigree suggests there’s a chance she’ll appreciate trying grass—after all, she’s a daughter of Harry’s Holiday, who sires a solid 18% winners on turf.

We suggest including Athenaeum on your tickets in case she takes a big step forward while switching surfaces.

If you still wish to seek a single to reduce ticket costs and complexity, we recommend siding with #6 Arrasou (3-1) in Race 5, a $20,000 starter optional claimer for fillies and mares dashing six furlongs on dirt.

Arrasou fired off a big effort at this track, distance, and class level on Sept. 9. After pressing a hot pace in second place, she took over to triumph by two lengths with an 83 Brisnet Speed rating three points higher than the par winning number for Tuesday’s conditions.

None of the other horses entered in Race 5 have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 81 in their last four starts apiece. If Arrasou brings her A game, she’s well-spotted to snag a second straight win for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Alberto Burgos and Randy Klopp.

Good luck!