How Much Did the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pay?

The 2017 Kentucky Derby (Holly Smith Photo)

How Well Did the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers Perform for the 2017 Kentucky Derby?

If you were a fan of Always Dreaming in late February, when he’d raced just once as a 3-year-old, you could have got some fantastic odds in pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

by Alastair Bull

The Todd Pletcher-trained son of Bodemeister started favorite on Derby day, and punters who backed him on the day got an $11.40 payout for their $2 investment.

But if you’d taken him in Pool 3, when he was first given an individual spot in the KDFW, you would have earned $86.40 for your $2, or odds of 42-1. At that point he’d only raced once as a 3-year-old, for an 11-1/2 length victory in a Tampa Bay Downs maiden special weight.

Those who fancied Always Dreaming might also have liked their chances of getting good odds when Pool 4 opened March 31, when he was assessed at morning line odds of 50-1. But his impressive Florida Derby victory saw him close at odds of 6-1, or a final return of $14.20 for $2 – second favorite behind McCraken. The odds were still better than Derby Day, though not by much.

Pool 3 also produced the best KDFW exacta payout. As Derby runner-up Lookin At Lee was only an individual option in pools 1 and 2, the KDFW payout was for Always Dreaming and the mutuel field or “all others” option. With only nine of the eventual Derby starters featuring as individual options in this pool, anyone holding the Always Dreaming-mutuel field ticket from this pool must have been excited, as they had 11 horses that could have run second for them with an $835 return going for a $2 bet – much more than the raceday payout of $336.20.

On Derby day, the winning Always Dreaming-mutuel field option for pool 4 had only six starters available for the mutuel field: Lookin At Lee, Fast and Accurate, Hence, Irap, Patch, and Sonneteer. The final payout was $190.40, less than the raceday payout but still good odds for having the favorite coupled with six other horses.

The successful win bets for pools 1 and 2 of the KDFW were for the mutuel field option, producing returns of $4.40 for $2 in the first pool and $7.00 for $2 in the second option. The returns are small compared to Always Dreaming’s final price, but they were not bad considering that only seven of the 23 individual options from pool 1 made it to the Derby start, and nine of the 23 in pool 2.

As Lookin At Lee was an individual option in the first two pools, the exacta payouts for both were mutuel field-Lookin At Lee. They returned $302.40 for pool 1 and $180.80 for pool 2 – not bad given the number of eventual starters that were part of the mutuel field option.

Kentucky Derby Sire Wager

The Kentucky Derby sire wager, held alongside pool 1, went the way of an individual horse, as Always Dreaming’s sire Bodemeister was an option. It produced a $63.30 return for a $2 bet. Lookin At Lee’s sire Lookin At Lucky was not included, so the successful sire wager exacta was Bodemeister-mutuel field, which returned $488.20.

Kentucky Oaks Future Wager

The sole Kentucky Oaks Future Wager result highlighted the value of betting early. When it was held Feb. 24-26, boom California filly Unique Bella was still in training, and she was an even money favorite when it ended. Alas, she didn’t make it to the race due to injury.

It meant that if you liked any horse other than Unique Bella at that point, even in a speculative manner, you were in for a good payout, and that’s what happened. Oaks winner Abel Tasman finished the KOFW a 23-1 shot, and bettors got a $48.80 payout for a $2 bet – much better than the $20.40 she paid on the day. The Abel Tasman-Daddys Lil Darling KOFW exacta was $835.00, much better than the $203.00 payout on Oaks day.