How to bet the 2019 Saratoga Derby

It’s safe to say many handicappers, particularly trip handicappers, will land on #4 Rockemperor as the most likely winner of Sunday’s $750,000 Saratoga Derby at Saratoga.

The inaugural running of this rich, 1 3/16-mile race attracted the top five finishers from last month’s 1 1/4-mile Belmont Derby (G1) at Belmont Park, which isn't surprising since the two races comprise the first two legs of the New York Racing Association’s new Turf Trinity series.

The support for Rockemperor is easy to understand. The son of Holy Roman Emperor showed potential in France before he was transferred to the barn of top turf trainer Chad Brown, who promptly entered Rockemperor in the Belmont Derby. Post 14 proved problematic, though, as Rockemperor was forced to drop back to last place early, the he rallied widest of all at the top of the stretch. Despite these obstacles, he produced a big rally to finish third, 1 1/4 lengths behind the winner.

Trip handicappers will be eager to play Rockemperor against the Belmont Derby winner #1 Henley’s Joy, who parlayed a perfect ground-saving trip into a 20-1 upset. I would encourage handicappers to go a step further and consider the merits of #2 Social Paranoia.

I think it’s important to note the Belmont Derby wasn’t a typical slow-paced New York turf race. It unfolded at a solid clip from start to finish, which gave an advantage to deep closers like Rockemperor. Social Paranoia, on the other hand, raced much closer to the early pace and made a premature rally around the far turn to claim a one-length lead at the eighth pole. He flattened out a bit in the final furlong, but he was still beaten less than a length by Henley’s Joy and held off Rockemperor for the runner-up spot.

According to data from Trakus, ground loss on the turns caused Social Paranoia to run five lengths farther than Henley’s Joy and a length farther than Rockemperor. Taking all of these facts together, I believe Social Paranoia ran clearly the best race in the Belmont Derby. Whether he can repeat his big performance in the Saratoga Derby is another question, but he’ll be a higher price than Rockemperor or Henley’s Joy in the wagering, offsetting some of the risk and increasing the potential reward.

I’ll aim for a big score in the Saratoga Derby by keying both Social Paranoia and Rockemperor in the trifecta while spreading deep in the remaining slot. If Social Paranoia wins and a longshot squeezes into second or third place, we could be looking at a boxcar payoff.

$1 trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 1,6,8,9,10,11 ($12) $1 trifecta: 2,4 with 1,6,8,9,10,11 with 2,4 ($12)

Good luck!