How to bet the 2021 Ohio Derby

Masqueparade winning a Churchill Downs allowance. (Photo by Coady Photography)

Who is the fastest horse entered in Saturday’s $500,000 Ohio Derby (G3) at Thistledown?

The 1 1/8-mile race has drawn a strong field of 11, including a handful of graded stakes winners. But the fastest entrant in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings isn’t necessarily the one you’d expect.

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You might think, surely the fastest horse is #1 Promise Keeper (7-2)? The Todd Pletcher trainee certainly produced a strong effort when he rolled to a 2 1/4-length victory in the Peter Pan S. (G3) at Belmont Park and earned a 100 Brisnet Speed rating. But he is not the fastest horse on paper.

How about #4 King Fury (9-2), who unleashed a powerful rail rally to dominate the Lexington S. (G3) at Keeneland by 2 3/4 lengths? I’m afraid he’s not the answer, either. The Lexington fell apart late, because of a destructive pace battle over a sloppy track, and King Fury’s Brisnet Speed rating was only a 95.

Could it be #8 Keepmeinmind (4-1), the stretch-running winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) at Churchill Downs in the fall? Not quite. His career-best figure is the 98 he posted when he finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).

The fastest horse in the Ohio Derby is #10 Masqueparade (8-1).

The son of Upstart took his time during the winter. He required four starts to break his maiden, and finally achieved the feat via disqualification in a 1 1/16-mile event at Fair Grounds.

But Masqueparade elevated his game to a new level in a 1 1/8-mile allowance at Churchill Downs on May 1. After he tracked modest fractions of :23.63, :48.24, and 1:12.57, Masqueparade unleashed an explosive burst of acceleration. With the fourth quarter-mile in :23.80, and the final furlong in :11.96, Masqueparade roared clear to trounce his rivals by 11 3/4 lengths.

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Masqueparade reached the finish line in 1:48.35 and earned a 102 Brisnet Speed rating and a 106 Brisnet Late Pace rating.

It’s fair to question whether he can repeat those figures against tougher competition in the Ohio Derby, but if he has turned a corner — if this represents his new level of form — then Masqueparade can win right back in the Ohio Derby at a nice price.

We’ll definitely bet Masqueparade to win, but we’ll also play him on top in the trifecta. Underneath, we’ll use Promise Keeper, King Fury, Churchill Downs allowance winner #5 Ethical Judgement (8-1), and the improving Pennine Ridge S. (G3) runner-up #7 The Reds (6-1).