How to bet the Chandelier and Saturday's late DD at Santa Anita
The final of five Grade 1 races on Saturday afternoon at Santa Anita is the Chandelier for two-year-old fillies. The $300,000 event is conducted at a mile and a sixteenth over the main track and the winner will be rewarded an automatic berth into the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) on November 5.
Last year's rendition was a one-horse race as champion filly Songbird used the Chandelier as a springboard to an Eclipse Award. The 12 runners in this field all have their short-term sights set on a two-year-old title and a more long-term goal of winning races like the Kentucky Oaks (G1) next May at Churchill Downs.
The 2016 Chandelier will almost certainly fail to produce a runner of Songbird's quality, but it is very competitive and offers horseplayers a great wagering opportunity.
The second-, third- and fourth-place finishers from the Del Mar Debutante (G1) all return and will try two-turns for the first time. In addition to those highly regarded fillies, "new shooters" will give Grade 1 company a try for the first time to see where they stack up amongst the best in the division thus far.
Five fillies are likely to take the lion's share of the money led by #5 American Cleopatra. The full sister to 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah is the 7-2-favorite on Jon White's morning line after finishing second in the Del Mar Debutante. Her pedigree and look certainly suggest that the distance should not be an issue, but her price on the tote board will likely make others a bit more appealing.
#3 Champagne Room for trainer Peter Eurton is a fine looking daughter of Broken Vow that has had some early success sprinting, but always had the look of a filly that would flourish around two turns. After breaking her maiden in the Sorrento (G2) at Del Mar, she came back and ran an okay third in the Del Mar Debutante. I think she is ready to run a career best on Saturday and will be one of my two "key" horses in The Chandelier.
#1 With Honors enters Saturday's race a perfect two-for-two after overcoming an extreme outside post to win the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf. While some may question her ability to transfer her form from the lawn to the dirt, I am not concerned. She has trained forwardly over the main track and her second dam is 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Dreaming of Anna. With a clean break, her natural speed should put her right into the race and I know she can get two turns based on her first two starts. She is my other "key" horse in the Chandelier.
Trainer Richard Baltas sends out two in the Chandelier. #4 Zapperkat was quite impressive in her debut on Pacific Classic Day at Del Mar and was made 9-2 on the morning line. The daughter of Ghostzapper got a perfect trip and won going away at six furlongs, but beat a suspect group so it is hard to know just how good she is. Her stablemate, #8 Mistressofthenight, did not get quite a clean voyage in her first start despite being heavily backed on September 3. The highly-regarded daughter of 2007-08 Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) winner Midnight Lute broke slowly, but ran on late for a nice third. She is spotted ambitiously in her second start, but is worth including at 10-1 or higher.
#10 Lake Time has the look of a late running sprinter, but perhaps she can relax early and pick up the pieces late for a minor reward at a nice price.
The rest of the field appears overmatched to me, including #2 Noted and Quoted. My top choice in the Del Mar Debutante ran a dull fourth and does not have the look or pedigree to suggest she will improve around two turns.
I will build both my vertical and horizontal wagers around #1 With Honors and #3 Champagne Room.
I think of the field of 12, these two fillies and American Cleopatra are currently best suited for a two-turn race at this class level, but I am expecting the latter to be more heavily backed creating better value for the other two runners. If either of them are over 6-1 they merit consideration as Win bets, but if not I will stick to exactas and trifectas within the race.
Here is my wagering strategy for the Chandelier:
$1 Trifecta Wheel 1+3 with 1+3+4+5+8+10, 1+3+4+5+8+10= ($40)
$1 Trifecta Wheel 1+3+4+5+8 with 1+3 with 1+3+4+5+8+10 = ($32)
$1 Trifecta Wheel 1+3+5 with 1+3+5 with 1+3+4+5+8+10 = ($24)
$10 Exacta Box 1+3= ($20)
$5 Exacta Wheel 1+3 with 1+3+4+8+10 = ($40)
Total= $156
The Chandelier is preceded by the Zenyatta (G1), which should be an exciting race between Beholder and Stellar Wind. However, it offers no value. Therefore, I will focus on the late Daily Double that includes the $70,000 Unzip Me in terms of horizontal wagers. This sequence starts in Race 10 with The Chandelier.
The Unzip Me attracted a full field of three-year-old fillies and will be contested down the hillside turf course at about six and one-half furlongs. I like the look of three fillies in this one to pair up with my two key horses from the Chandelier.
#1 Tourny was heavily backed in her Stateside debut for trainer John Sadler. She took the lead in the stretch at Del Mar before tiring late. Sadler has awful numbers with horses off long layoffs and in their first try in the states, so she almost certainly will move forward a ton on Saturday. The rail is far from ideal, but I still love her chances to run huge.
#2 Corps de Ballet returns to the one-turn configuration after two failed efforts going a mile at Del Mar this summer. Both of her lifetime victories came down the hill. 12-1 is a very fair price.
#9 Cheekaboo had a troubled voyage in the Del Mar Oaks (G1) and is a very talented filly for trainer Peter Eurton. She will likely be outrun early, but if they go too quick upfront she will be rolling late.
SUGGESTED DAILY DOUBLE PLAYS STARTING IN RACE 10:
$10 Daily Double 1+3 with 1+2+9= ($60)
(Benoit Photo)
ADVERTISEMENT
