How track bias and post stats can point out logical winners
Finding a near-certain winner in a horse race isn’t easy, because there are many ways races can take wild turns and unfold differently than expected. But analyzing the track bias and post position statistics found in Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances can help uncover the likeliest of winners.
Some tracks and distances strongly favor certain types of horses. The 4 1/2-furlong dirt sprints held at Charles Town are a great example. Speed is dominant in these abbreviated dashes, and pacesetters win an impressive percentage of races.
On June 15, 2023, six fillies and mares started in a 4 1/2-furlong dirt allowance at Charles Town. The 1-2 favorite was Fancy Her Up, who had set the pace when finishing second by a neck in a similar race less than three weeks prior.
The Brisnet stats stamped Fancy Her Up as a compelling favorite. From a sample size of 239 races held over 4 1/2 furlongs dating back to Jan. 4, 2023, the data revealed pacesetters had won at a staggering 49% rate. And judging from the Brisnet E2 Pace ratings, Fancy Her Up was the most likely pacesetter in the June 15 allowance, having posted 10 consecutive numbers in the 92-98 range. Jacks Sister Jill was the other logical pace player after posting E2 Pace ratings in the 92-96 range in six of her last seven starts, but she generally ranked a little slower than Fancy Her Up in terms of early speed.
There’s something exciting about betting late-running Thoroughbreds and cheering for them to catch up down the homestretch, but they’re generally at a disadvantage against rivals with superior early speed. @Brisnet Pace ratings can help you find them ⤵️ https://t.co/B5d1WFNkdE— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) November 15, 2022
Also compelling were the statistics involving post positions. Horses breaking from posts 4-7 were winning at higher percentages than horses starting in posts 1-3. Fancy Her Up, breaking from post 6, figured to enjoy an advantage over Jacks Sister Jill, who landed in post 2. Taking all of these factors into account, Fancy Her Up was a fair win bet even at her 1-2 odds, and she also loomed as a logical single for multi-race wagers.
Bettors who analyzed the Brisnet track bias and post position stats were unsurprised when Fancy Her Up led by daylight at every call to win by 2 1/2 lengths. Every $20 win bet returned $30, and bettors who played Fancy Her Up over Jacks Sister Jill in a cold $20 exacta caught a $66 payoff when Jacks Sister Jill raced in second place from start to finish as the 3.90-1 second choice.
Sometimes, finding a near-certain winner isn’t as difficult as it sounds.