2026 Dubai World Cup storylines: Forever Young on verge of earnings record

Thirty years after Hall of Famer Cigar made the inaugural Dubai World Cup an instant classic, the biggest storyline of the 2026 renewal is the fact that it’s happening at all.

The Israeli/U.S. war on Iran that began on Feb. 28 – Super Saturday at Meydan – was visible in the skies over Dubai, as racegoers saw missiles and drones in a surreal backdrop to the action on the track. With the closure of Emirati airspace for a time and the cancellation of other sporting events amid ongoing hostilities in the region, could there even be a 30th anniversary of the World Cup on March 28?

The show goes on Saturday, nevertheless, giving us a modicum of distraction from a world in flames. The planet’s best dirt horse, Forever Young, is poised to make history in the $12 million World Cup (G1), and last year’s top-rated performer overall, Calandagan, adds star power to the Dubai Sheema Classic (G1). Interestingly, both are on a mission to set the record straight from the losses suffered in the same races a year ago. 

Yet Dubai remains in the theater of conflict. The March 13 Carnival card was interrupted for about 30 minutes by the threat of missiles, and a similar alert was announced during Thursday morning’s trackwork. The United Arab Emirates Ministry of Defence continues to give daily updates on its “engagements” with Iranian aerial weapons. 

As if that weren’t enough, the region is in for significant rain through Friday, with severe weather potential. The Meydan turf figures to be riding softer than usual, a ground factor that one usually doesn’t need to consider on World Cup night.

Now let’s turn to the top equine storylines.

Forever Young on cusp of setting a new all-time earnings record

After catching Romantic Warrior in last year’s Saudi Cup (G1), Forever Young is expected to surpass him by another metric here – career earnings. Romantic Warrior currently ranks as the world’s richest-ever racehorse with a bankroll exceeding $32.4 million. 

Forever Young’s successful title defense in the $20 million Saudi Cup boosted his earnings to about $29.3 million. If he lives up to his overwhelming favoritism (4-5 on the North American morning line) on Saturday, the $6.96 million winner’s check would push him well past the $36 million threshold.

But that’s just one way of framing Forever Young’s historic stature. Perhaps the more interesting angle is how he earned that money. The first Japanese-based horse to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), and the first Saudi Cup winner to repeat, he’d add another unique achievement to his portfolio with a Saudi/World Cup double. The feat eluded him a year ago, when he was a subpar third in Dubai.

Forever Young is arguably in better condition to complete the lucrative sweep this time, since his Saudi effort was not a gut-buster like last year. But trainer Yoshito Yahagi isn’t enamored of the six-week gap between races, preferring a tighter window to keep him sharp.

Yahagi’s main qualm is the weather: “I am particularly concerned at the moment that I don’t want to see it raining heavily on Saturday, definitely not.”

My only qualm is that Yahagi might have jinxed the colt by describing him as a “god” (see the video just before the 4:00 mark). That’s the sort of hubris inviting a cosmic backlash, if you remember the ancient Greeks!

Hit Show aims to join Thunder Snow as a two-time World Cup star

With Forever Young monopolizing the attention, it’s easy to overlook the fact that last year’s upset winner, Wathnan Racing’s Hit Show, is back in hopes of making history himself. 

Only one horse has won the World Cup twice, Godolphin’s globetrotter Thunder Snow (2018-19). Of the four others who attempted a repeat, three were unplaced – Silver Charm (1999), African Story (2015), and Country Grammer (2023). Ushba Tesoro, a distant second in his 2024 title defense, was sixth in his return visit in 2025. 

Note that Hit Show is taking a different path to Dubai. While he had two prep runs a year ago, the Brad Cox veteran comes off a single tune-up, albeit a victorious one in the Mineshaft (G3) at Fair Grounds. 

If Thunder Snow feels safe that Hit Show won’t duplicate his heroics, he’ll probably have to relinquish his other distinction in the record book. Thunder Snow is so far the only UAE Derby (G2) winner to go on to World Cup glory. Forever Young, as the star of the 2024 UAE Derby, appears bound to join him. 

Magnitude seeks to shake up the Gun Runner parallels

Considering that Magnitude outdueled the older Hit Show in last November’s Clark (G2) at Churchill Downs, the Winchell Thoroughbreds colt has claims to be the leading U.S. hope. His Clark victory furthered the parallel with a past Winchell-connected celebrity also trained by Steve Asmussen – Gun Runner. 

The heart of their sophomore campaigns differed, for Magnitude was sidelined by injury following his Risen Star (G2) romp. But Magnitude displayed an eerily similar profile in the second half of the season, and he reinforced it by dominating his four-year-old bow in the Razorback H. (G3), the same Oaklawn Park race that launched Gun Runner to Dubai in 2017. 

Of course, Gun Runner ran into a fellow Hall of Famer, Arrogate, at the peak of his powers in that year’s World Cup. Magnitude could well play the same role vis-à-vis Forever Young here, but he’ll try to break free of the paradigm. 

Calandagan returns a stronger specimen in Sheema

At this time last year, Calandagan was overturned as the favorite in his Sheema comeback. The Aga Khan Studs homebred was then in the midst of a bout of seconditis. But he began to mature over the summer, helped in part by his bonding with jockey Mickael Barzalona.

Now Calandagan returns to Dubai as the finished article, ranked the “World’s Best Racehorse” of 2025. His current winning streak put him in the history books. After emulating the all-time great Brigadier Gerard by sweeping the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth (G1) and Champion (G1) at Ascot, Calandagan became the first international raider in 20 years to plunder the Japan Cup (G1). And he did so in record time.

The Sheema field doesn’t have as much strength in depth, although Giavellotto and Ethical Diamond can’t be underestimated. Still, Calandagan is the heavy favorite to add this trophy to his cabinet. 

Breeders’ Cup form plus “Win and You’re In” angles

Four of the Group 1s on the card serve as Breeders’ Cup Challenge events. Three are tied to prizes at about the same distance and surface – the World Cup as a “Win and You’re In” for the Classic, the Sheema for the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1), and the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1) for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1). A less natural alliance is forged between the about nine-furlong Dubai Turf (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). 

With Keeneland in late October feeling a world away right now, the most pressing Breeders’ Cup angles involve contenders who competed in the 2025 championships. 

Ethical Diamond, last seen stunning Rebel’s Romance and company in the Turf, is setting out to prove that his Del Mar performance was no fluke. Willie Mullins’ former hurdler sports a winning streak of his own, including a Royal Ascot handicap and the Ebor H. at York. Yet no reigning Breeders’ Cup Turf winner has prevailed in the Sheema. 

Bentornato faces a similar task as the current Sprint winner. trying to follow up in the Dubai Golden Shaheen. A few of his vanquished foes from Del Mar renew rivalry here – Yahagi’s American Stage, California-bred Lovesick Blues, and Nakatomi, who deserves better luck after placing in the past two runnings of the Golden Shaheen. Sprint also-ran Banishing tries his luck in the Godolphin Mile (G2). 

Reef Runner has something in common with the lone U.S.-based winner of the Al Quoz Sprint (G1), Extravagant Kid (2021), beyond being fellow Florida-breds: both had finished fourth in the previous fall’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1). While Reef Runner brings a stronger resume after upstaging Lazzat in the 1351 Turf Sprint (G2) on Saudi Cup Day, the change in condition to a straightaway at Meydan alters the equation. That’s no hindrance to the other Turf Sprint veteran in the Al Quoz, third-placer Khaadem, who invades for British trainer Charlie Hills. 

There’s a stronger correlation between the Classic and the Dubai World Cup. The mighty Cigar, Pleasantly Perfect (2004), Invasor (2007), Curlin (2008), and Arrogate (2017) won both, and Forever Young is knocking on the club door. 

World Cup rival Tumbarumba sports form from another Breeders’ Cup race, having finished fourth to Nysos in the Dirt Mile (G1). As a colorbearer for Wathnan Racing, he gives the emerging Qatari-based power a second shot in the World Cup, along with reigning champion Hit Show. 

Can the Crisfords maintain Carnival momentum?

The father-and-son training team of Simon and Ed Crisford had a brilliant Dubai Carnival, capped by three wins on the Super Saturday card. Two winners of the course-and-distance preps are back for the main event.

Meydaan, a revelation on the switch to dirt in the Al Maktoum Classic (G2), hopes to continue his upward curve in the World Cup. That race has not been the most productive World Cup pointer in years – you have to go back to the old days at Nad al Sheba to find winners of the comparable Super Saturday dress rehearsal who turned the double – but Meydaan remains an unexposed type on the surface. 

Quddwah romped in the Singspiel (G2), now the stepping stone to the Dubai Turf. Although he hasn’t made an impact in his prior Group 1 tilts, the six-year-old is in the form of his life at present, much like his dam, Sajjhaa. She excelled at the same age during the 2013 Carnival, parlaying her Super Saturday coup into victory in the Dubai Duty Free (the former name of the Dubai Turf). 

The Crisfords have other chances on World Cup night, notably Fairy Glen, who takes on males in the Dubai Gold Cup (G2). 

Ombudsman flies the flag for Godolphin

In the absence of Godolphin’s elder statesman, Rebel’s Romance, Ombudsman captains the royal blue team on World Cup night. Last year’s dazzling winner of the Prince of Wales’s (G1) and Juddmonte International (G1) has not raced since his runner-up effort to Calandagan in the Champion.

John and Thady Gosden long ago circled the Dubai Turf as his comeback spot, and Ombudsman is odds-on to give Godolphin a coveted winner on the night. The only potential caveat is if the ground is softer than anticipated, which could bring rivals like Quddwah and Facteur Cheval, the 2024 Dubai Turf winner, into play. Gaia Force has top-level form from Japan, although the ground might be a question mark for him, too.

Godolphin’s senior trainer, Saeed bin Suroor, has defending champion Dubai Future in the Dubai Gold Cup. Charlie Appleby throws a couple of up-and-comers against Calandagan in the Sheema – Royal Power and By the Book. He sends out a more plausible UAE Derby contender in Devon Island, but Godolphin’s primary hope appears to be Japanese homebred Pyromancer. 

UAE Derby to decide Kentucky Derby invitations

As the climax of the Euro/Mideast Road to the Kentucky Derby, the UAE Derby offers the maximum number of points on the 100-60-30-15-10 format to the top five finishers. It’s effectively a “win or finish second, and you’re in,” since two Derby spots are up for grabs on the Euro/Mideast Road. Only if connections decline an invitation would another horse from this series hypothetically come into the picture. 

Pyromancer, 3-for-3 so far, is favored to become the fifth straight Japanese-trained winner of the UAE Derby. But those winners had the benefit of recent preps, while Pyromancer has not raced since capturing the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun on Dec. 17. The form of that race leaves something to be desired, although Pyromancer has a workmanlike vibe that does just enough to win. Compatriot Wonder Dean has the look of a dark horse, and he is entitled to move forward from his fourth in the Saudi Derby (G3) over an inadequate metric mile. 

The leading locals have various questions to answer. UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) star Six Speed has to carry his speed over about 1 3/16 miles, in a race that hasn’t been congenial to the Guineas winners in recent years. One of his stablemates from the Bhupat Seemar yard, Salloom, is wildly talented, but his meltdowns at the gate have cost him valuable opportunities. 

Brotherly Love churned on to win a slow Dubai Road to the Kentucky Derby race. A half-brother to last year’s UAE Derby near-misser Heart of Honor (who runs in the World Cup), Brotherly Love needs to improve at this level. The filly Labwah impressed in the UAE Oaks (G3), but the lone female to win this race, Khawlah (2011), barely did so during the Tapeta era. 

Past World Cup night winners look to recapture the glory

Several in this category have been mentioned already – Hit Show as the defending World Cup champion, Forever Young as a UAE Derby alum, Facteur Cheval in the Dubai Turf, and Dubai Future in the Gold Cup. 

But the Golden Shaheen is particularly noteworthy for pitting the past two winners against each other. Tuz, the 2024 champion and a longtime mainstay in the local sprint division, was shockingly third last year to unheralded sophomore Dark Saffron. 

As his $132.60 win payout attests, Dark Saffron looked up against it on paper. He wasn’t doing much to enhance his reputation this season until his runner-up effort on Super Saturday to the new divisional poster boy, El Nasseeb. The nine-year-old Tuz was a ring-rusty fifth off the layoff in the same prep, but Seemar knows how to coddle aging sprinters ahead of the main target. 

Purebred Arabians are outside my scope, but First Classs deserves to be recognized as a two-time hero of the Dubai Kahayla Classic. First successful in 2022 and again in 2025, the nine-year-old is making his fifth straight appearance in this race. 

The horses that didn’t come

Finally, to return to where we started, it must be noted that wartime conditions have reduced international participation. Eclipse Award-winning sprinter Book’em Danno was planning to ship until the outbreak of hostilities. Unbeaten Saudi Derby star Al Haram and his stablemates had their flight from Riyadh canceled. 

A whole raft of Japanese contenders called off their plans. Among them were Danon Decile, who beat Calandagan in last year’s Sheema; recently-crowned champions Museum Mile and Jantar Mantar, both initially slated for the Dubai Turf; World Cup candidates Diktaean, Mikki Fight, and Wilson Tesoro; Satono Reve and Win Carnelian, last year’s Al Quoz runner-up; exciting dirt sprinter T O Elvis; Costa Nova; and a few UAE Derby possibles.

In the circumstances, we’re grateful to have superstars on the scene for a memorable 30th World Cup.