Nashville Derby International Scouting Report: Causeway, Nil Bua Gan Dua

With four European shippers in a field of 12, Saturday’s Nashville Derby (G2) offers plenty of international intrigue at Kentucky Downs. 

Aidan O’Brien sends out Causeway, a Royal Ascot winner who hopes to rebound from a clunker in Paris. In contrast, Joseph O’Brien’s Nil Bua Gan Dua aims to build upon his recent career high at Gowran, and as a Kentucky-bred, he runs for the full $3 million purse. 

German invader Gostam is a fascinating contender for Andreas Wohler, and I wrote enough to spin off a separate scouting report on him. 

Glacius is already a known commodity stateside after his front-running coup in the Saratoga Derby (G1). The Hugo Palmer trainee employed opportunistic tactics at the Spa, but he’s capable of reverting to a stalking style if others are intent on going forward. His Saratoga Derby scouting report covered his pedigree and British career, so we’ll focus on the Irish-trained newcomers here. 

Causeway to bounce back for Australian mission?

The Ballydoyle sophomore class is always being sifted and sorted, and Causeway has emerged as a potential candidate for an Australian venture. The yard’s lone nominee to the Oct. 17 Caulfield Cup (G1), he is among a Ballydoyle trio engaged in the Oct. 24 Cox Plate (G1) and a handful in the Melbourne Cup (G1). His Kentucky Downs performance should help to determine his future program. 

Earlier this season, Causeway elicited comparisons to past O’Brien star Paddington, thanks to a similar itinerary. Both colts took in the same handicap and listed stakes, but their paths diverged once they stepped up in class. 

Unlike Paddington, who immediately jumped up to Group 1 glory, Causeway climbed methodically through the grades while stretching out in distance. Causeway’s five-race winning streak came to a screeching halt when he trailed home in the Grand Prix de Paris (G1), and he’s eligible to return to a more characteristic level of form here.

The Coolmore homebred has the pedigree to succeed in the U.S. By the much-missed Wootton Bassett, sire of three Breeders’ Cup winners, Causeway is out of the Galileo mare Heaven of Heavens. She is a full sister to seven-time Group 1 star Magical, twice runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1), and to multiple Group 1 queen Rhododendron, the 2017 Filly & Mare Turf (G1) runner-up. Rhododendron went on to produce dual classic winner Auguste Rodin, whose six top-level scores include the 2023 Turf. This is also the family of Victoria Road, the 2022 Juvenile Turf (G1) winner. 

Causeway didn’t race until the fall of his juvenile season. Fourth on debut at Gowran Park behind eventual Derby (G1) winner Christmas Day, he broke his maiden next time out at the Curragh, in the vanguard throughout before slogging clear. 

In his March 22 reappearance, Causeway picked up where he left off in the Madrid H. at Naas. He was slowly away on the rail, but bustled up to track the pace, and battled gamely to prevail under top weight of 138 pounds. 

Causeway added cheekpieces for his stakes debut in The Tetrarch at the Curragh, where he encountered good ground for the first time after dealing with soft or heavy. Staying on strongly like a colt who wanted to go further than a mile, he rolled home by two lengths. 

Instead of advancing to a mile classic as Paddington did after his Madrid/Tetrarch double in 2023, Causeway stretched out for the 1 1/4-mile Gallinule (G3). The 5-6 favorite just eked it out by a head, without cheekpieces, and he might have needed them. Although he always appeared to have the measure of the pacesetter, Causeway almost got outfinished by the rallying Zia Zabel. But he held on in 2:02.22, a fast time in the conditions at the Curragh. 

“He’s a lovely, honest-to-God horse,” O’Brien told irishracing.com. “Ryan (Moore) gave him a lovely, straightforward, uncomplicated ride.

“He's a hardy boy, and he'll only ever do what he has to do. When the cheekpieces go back on, they will be a help to him too.”

The cheekpieces were indeed back on for the King Edward VII (G2) at Royal Ascot. The even-money favorite to extend his winning skein, Causeway was trying 1 1/2 miles while racing on the firmest ground he’d seen so far. But he displayed his typical tenacity to wear down Ancient Egypt. The two drew 10 lengths clear of the rest in a strong 2:28.74. 

“He is very lazy,” O’Brien said, “so it is hard to know what is in there. Ryan said that he was toying with him and that, when he gets there, he is lazy.”

“Every time I asked him, he just kept finding,” Moore said. “When I asked for a little more, he gave me a little bit more; he's just done enough. There is more in the tank, I hope.”

Causeway did not have more in the tank in the July 14 Grand Prix de Paris. On the go since March, he possibly recoiled from it all. Setting the early pace, rather than stalking as he did at Ascot, also complicated his task. In any event, he faded in a way that was too bad to be true behind the high-class Maltese Cross and Ancient Egypt, who suffered another near-miss. (Ancient Egypt got his own scouting report ahead of his fourth in the Christophe Clement Turf [G1].)

Nil Bua Gan Dua on the upswing

Another tactical type who needs cheekpieces, Nil Bua Gan Dua has been a work in progress, and his placement may be inspired in part by the Kentucky-bred prize money. But he does enter on the upswing for the astute Joseph O’Brien, who has given him an early entry in the Melbourne Cup. 

The son of Triple Crown champion American Pharoah was bred by Thor-Bred Stables, whose other luminaries include Battle of Midway and Klimt. Nil Bua Gan Dua is out of a mare by Noble Mission, Frankel’s multiple Group 1-winning full brother. 

A $38,000 Keeneland September yearling, Nil Bua Gan Dua found a more receptive crowd at Tattersalls Ireland’s breeze-up sale, where he brought $180,491. He races for A.K. Whelan and U.S.-based Reeves Thoroughbred Racing (best known for Mucho Macho Man and Channel Maker). 

You might quip that Nil Bua Gan Dua was living up to his name – “no victory without hardship (or effort),” or idiomatically, “no pain, no gain” – when he took a while to break his maiden. He’s been in a few salty spots, and he’s had to be cajoled into putting forth a greater effort.

After a one-paced fourth in his Curragh premiere, Nil Bua Gan Dua was pitched into Group company at Leopardstown. He was third behind the imperious Benvenuto Cellini in the Champions Juvenile (G2), albeit in a four-horse field, and fifth of six to Christmas Day in the Eyrefield (G3). Returning to maiden company in his sophomore bow at Cork, he was outkicked in third. 

Nil Bua Gan Dua finally found a winnable spot in a median auction maiden at Roscommon. To be fair, the step up to 10 1/2 furlongs helped his cause significantly, and he led throughout to justify even-money favoritism. 

Raising his sights for the Golden Gates H. at Royal Ascot, Nil Bua Gan Dua finished a fine fourth at odds of 22-1. He settled a few lengths off the pace and rallied into contention, but could not match the finishing speed of the top three. You can see him looming near the outside (green cap) before the well-regarded Lost Boys alters course to win. 

Nil Bua Gan Dua went up in class and trip for the 1 5/8-mile Bahrain Trophy (G3) during Newmarket’s July Festival. Although he led early through modest fractions, he retreated to fourth in a five-horse field. Ryan Moore believed that the colt wasn’t fully applying himself. 

Cheekpieces were added for the 1 1/2-mile Marble City S. at Gowran, and Nil Bua Gan Dua responded to score his first stakes win. The 5-1 chance dictated the pace, quickened, and barely lasted from the fillies Vauntingly (his stablemate) and Believed (the 6-5 favorite).

“His focus was much better today with the cheekpieces,” Joseph told irishracing.com. 

“Ryan (Moore) just felt he was waiting in front the last time (in the Bahrain Trophy). I thought he won impressively today. 

“I’d say he’ll go into a Group race now. I think there’s more to come from him. He’s quite a good horse. We’ve always tried him quite highly and always had good thoughts about him, and he’s not finished yet.”

Believed gives him collateral form with St Leger (G1) contenders. Previously third to Joseph O’Brien’s smart Enceladus in a Royal Ascot handicap, Believed has since won the Give Thanks (G3) over Ballydoyle’s quirky Amelia Earhart.

Nashville Derby International Scouting Report: Gostam