Post Preakness expert pick action in Hong Kong for May 17

If you’re up late Saturday night still looking for something to play after the hubbub of the Preakness (G1) dies down, Hong Kong’s Sha Tin has a 10-race program. In true Hong Kong fashion, most of these races feature big fields with plenty of attractive wagering options.

There are no Pick 4s, Pick 5s, or Pick 6s in Hong Kong. Players can, however, play early or late Pick 3s. Here, I’ll dive into the late one, which kicks off in the eighth with my biggest lean of the sequence. Note that an asterisk next to a horse in the heading denotes my top pick.

Late Pick 3 Ticket (Races 8-10)

• 2 with 1,3,4,5 with 1,2,9,11

For a $1 base, this is a $16 ticket. The goal is to extract some value out of #2 With a Smile, who’s both the shortest price of the sequence and my strongest lean. Getting a price or two home around him would be ideal, for sure, but the wide-open nature of the last two races means this Pick 3 could pay more than it should.

Race 8, 4:40 a.m. ET: #2

#2 With a Smile (9-5) is a heavy morning line favorite, and for good reason. He broke through last time out to record his first victory in four Hong Kong starts, and that win came at this level and route. Leading rider Zac Purton was aboard that day, and he sees fit to ride back when he almost certainly had some options.

There are some barriers With a Smile has to overcome. In fact, one barrier IS the barrier draw, as he’ll break from the 13-hole. He’s also one of two runners carrying 135 pounds, and he’ll spot his opponents up to 16 pounds. Still, a repeat of the last-out effort would make him tough, and there’s every chance he improves given a relative lack of experience. Add in that I need to spread elsewhere in the sequence, and this one is a pretty easy single.

Race 9, 5:15 a.m. ET: #1,3,4*, 5

#4 Pakistan Legacy (9-5) is the morning line favorite, but I expect his price to drift up. This seems like a very competitive field, and while he’s a tepid top pick, I don’t think he’s anywhere close to a cinch. Still, Purton rides back after a tough-trip fifth last time out, and the move from the 11 barrier to the 3-hole is a big one.

Of the others, the one I’m most intrigued by is #1 Triumphant More (7-1). He’s a three-time winner who didn’t sit his desired trip last time out. He wants to be on or very close to the pace, and I think he’ll be more prominent early here. The barrier draw isn’t ideal (he breaks from barrier 12), but his best effort is certainly good enough to win here.

Race 10, 5:50 a.m. ET: #1,2,9*,11

I’m going with Purton horses as my top picks in all three races. Here, he pilots #9 Definitive (4-1), who seems like one of the main speeds in an event pretty light on early zip elsewhere. His running lines include some pretty talented horses. He traded wins with Happy Valley stalwart Soleil Fighter in early 2025, and the winner of his last race, A Americ Te Specso, is going very well at the moment.

One price to watch is #1 Tourbillon Prince (21-1). I don’t think we’ll get the morning line price, but anything over 10-1 seems like an overlay. He’s another with early speed, and the presence of apprentice jockey Britney Wong means he gets a 10-pound weight break (down to 125 pounds). Wong does her best work with horses on the front end, and his best effort puts him right there. It wasn’t long ago he was fourth in a Class 2 event against better horses, and if he can channel that form, I think he could spring an upset.