Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Dec. 15

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Dec. 15 at Turfway Park, along with horses to single in the $1,032 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 12 Days of Fair Grounds – 1 Million Points Late Pick 5: To win a share of one million points, opt in and place a winning wager on the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds.

Picks and Plays

Turfway Park: Race 2: $20,000 Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 6:25 p.m. ET)

#6 Rogue Too (2-1) boasts an excellent 8-for-14 record at Turfway Park and a 2-for-3 record sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs. Her lone defeat over this distance came when she finished fourth (beaten 3 1/4 lengths) in the Wishing Well S. at Turfway last winter.

Rogue Too has hit the board in her last two starts against $62,500 allowance optional claiming company running long at Presque Isle Downs. Dropping down in class and distance for her Turfway return can send Rogue Too to the winner’s circle over #5 Bath And Tennis (8-5), a five-length winner of an $18,000-$16,000 claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Turfway last month.

Selections

• #6 Rogue Too (2-1)
• #5 Bath And Tennis (8-1)
• #9 Yogurt (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Rogue Too
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 5
• Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 3: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 6:55 p.m. ET)

#7 Homecoming Queen (4-1) showed some ability in her debut for a $50,000 maiden claiming tag at Churchill Downs, rallying to finish fourth in a 6 1/2-furlong dash. Her reward was a respectable 71 Brisnet Speed rating.

Trainer Rodolphe Brisset wins at a 24% rate with second-time starters, and at a 21% rate with horses running long for the first time, so Homecoming Queen has a couple of high-percentage trainer stats in her corner. We’ll bet the daughter of Carpe Diem to win, then key her over #2 Always Laughing (7-2) and #6 Cinderella Story (9-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Homecoming Queen (4-1)
• #2 Always Laughing (7-2)
• #6 Cinderella Story (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Homecoming Queen
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 2,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 8:25 p.m. ET)

#12 Viewers Discretion (20-1) doesn’t necessarily appear overmatched in this competitive maiden special weight. She’s cracked the trifecta in three straight turf races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, most recently finishing second by a neck against Marina’s Gold in a $30,000 maiden claimer. Marina’s Gold came right back to win a $25,000-$20,000 claimer at Fair Grounds by 13 1/2 lengths.

Two starts back, Viewers Discretion rallied to finish third in a maiden special weight. Her career-best 82 Brisnet Speed rating is tied for the highest number posted by any filly in Thursday’s field, so who’s to say Viewers Discretion can’t vie for victory at a big price? It’s worth noting Horseshoe Indianapolis shippers have been winning left and right at Turfway this meet.

A win bet on Viewers Discretion will be our first order of business, followed by an exacta using #1 Fiddle (7-2) and #2 Such Sounds (9-2) for second place.

Selections

• #12 Viewers Discretion (20-1)
• #2 Such Sounds (9-2)
• #1 Fiddle (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #12 Viewers Discretion
• $5 Exacta: 12 with 1,2 ($10)
• Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds, Race 3: $1,032 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

The Fair Grounds racing week gets underway with a $1,032 carryover on the table in the $1 Pick 6.

Bettors looking for a viable single to build tickets around ought to check out Race 4, a $5,000 claimer taking place over 1 1/16 miles on dirt. #2 Dyn O Mite (3-1), placed four times at the stakes level, is dropping sharply down the class ladder after running sixth in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer over the Ellis Park turf course during the summer.

Dyn O Mite has been gelded since his last start, introducing the possibility of an improved performance. He’s also switching from turf to dirt, a winning move 24% of the time for trainer Keith Desormeaux. It’s been a long time since Dyn O Mite last ran on dirt, but he’s a son of two-time Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Goldencents, and Dyn O Mite’s 5-1-2-0 lifetime record on dirt is respectable. He’s actually 1-for-1 over the Fair Grounds dirt specifically, having won a $50,000 allowance optional claimer racing one mile in December 2020.

Throw in the fact Dyn O Mite will be ridden by James Graham (a 21% winner teaming up with Desormeaux over the last two months), and it’s easy to make a case for Dyn O Mite to visit the Fair Grounds winner’s circle as a short-priced single.

Another possible single can be found in Race 7, a six-furlong maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies. Since 2020, trainer Brad Cox has gone 16-for-39 (41%) saddling experienced juveniles at Fair Grounds, which bodes well for the chances of Cox’s #7 Hughes Clues (7-2).

Hughes Clues debuted in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last month and carved out the pace before fading to finish sixth. Even in defeat, she earned a respectable 76 Brisnet Speed rating.

Hughes Clues will race with Lasix for the first time on Thursday, a 38% winning move for Cox. Add hot jockey Florent Geroux (a 22% winner to start the Fair Grounds meet), and Hughes Clues looks ready to win.

Good luck!