Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for April 16

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Friday, April 16 at Gulfstream Park and Keeneland, including two singles for Gulfstream’s $526,932 Rainbow Pick 6 carryover.

Picks and Plays

Gulfstream Park, Race 4: $50,000 Starter/optional claiming (five furlongs on turf, 2:40 p.m. ET)

#7 Exact (2-1) looms as a logical favorite, after she wired a pair of five-furlong sprints at Gulfstream in dominant fashion. The Todd Pletcher-trained filly scored by 4 3/4 lengths in a $16,000 maiden claiming event, then came back to win a $35,000 claiming race by the same margin.

But Exact is set to face several speedy rivals Friday, which could lend an advantage to #1 Running Memories (9-2). The daughter of Bahamian Squall has plenty of tactical speed, as she demonstrated when she wired a $25,000 maiden claiming race at five furlongs over the Gulfstream lawn.

But Running Memories isn’t a need-the-lead type. In the five-furlong Melody of Colors S. at Gulfstream last month, she broke slowly and ran into traffic off the turn, but rallied steadily up the inside to finish fourth, 1 3/4 lengths behind the winner.

I’m optimistic Running Memories will receive a better trip Friday, which sets the stage for a return to the winner’s circle. Underneath, Exact can battle with #3 Headline Hunter (4-1) for the minor awards.

$15 to win on #1 Running Memories
$5 exacta: 1 with 3,7 ($10)
$2.50 trifecta: 1 with 3,7 with 3,7 ($5)
Total: $30

Keeneland, Race 9: Doubledogdare S. (G3, 1 1/16 miles, 5:30 p.m. ET)

The Dougledogdare has attracted a deep field, with #6 Speech (8-5), #1 Royal Flag (5-2), and #5 Bonny South (3-1) the three morning line favorites.

All three are graded stakes winners, and Speech warrants respect, since she won the 2020 Ashland (G1), over 1 1/16 miles, at Keeneland in track-record time.

But Speech, Royal Flag, and Bonny South are all returning from layoffs. With this in mind, I wonder if #4 Eres Tu (4-1) can steal the show at a fair price.

Eres Tu went undefeated in three 2020 starts and wrapped up her campaign with a victory in the Allaire du Pont S. (G3) at Laurel Park. She wasn’t quite as productive in her 2021 debut, when she finished second by 1 3/4 lengths in the Royal Delta (G3) at Gulfstream Park. But Eres Tu arguably ran a winning race. She rallied wide into a hot pace and succumbed in the final furlong to a ground-saving deep closer. According to data from Trakus, Eres Tu ran three lengths farther than the winner.

Let’s take a shot with Eres Tu to win and play her on top in the exotics.

$15 to win on #4 Eres Tu
$10 exacta: 4 with 6
$2.50 trifecta: 4 with 6 with 1,5 ($5)
Total: $30

Keeneland, Race 10: Maiden special weight (1 1/16 miles, 6:03 p.m. ET)

Pletcher has been on fire at Keeneland this spring, with an 8-1-3 record from 14 starts. He can pick up another winner with #3 Mubtadaa (2-1) in the Friday finale.

A well-bred son of War Front, out of a Tapit mare, Mubtadaa didn’t run poorly in his Jan. 30 debut. In a five-furlong sprint over the Gulfstream turf course, Mubtadaa chased a quick pace from third place and came home fourth, beaten just 2 3/4 lengths by the winner, for a 80 Brisnet Speed rating.

Mubtadaa has the pedigree to stretch out over 1 1/16 miles. Jockey Luis Saez has won 10 of 20 starts riding for Pletcher over the last two months, so let’s bet Mubtadaa to win and key him over #4 Uncle Duke (12-1) and #6 Scarlet Fusion (9-5) in the exacta.

$20 to win on #3 Mubtadaa
$5 exacta: 3 with 4,6 ($10)
Total: $30

Carryover watch

Gulfstream Park, Race 4: $526,932 Rainbow Pick 6

The Rainbow Pick 6 carryover at Gulfstream Park has been steadily growing over the past few weeks and has surpassed the half-million mark for Friday’s card. A mandatory dispersal of the jackpot is scheduled for Saturday, when the final pool is projected to reach $3 million.

The jackpot was almost won on the afternoon Gulfstream announced the upcoming mandatory payout. The first two races in Thursday’s Rainbow 6 sequence produced 73-1 and 18-1 upsets, which is often enough to trigger a unique winning ticket. But after favorites won the remaining four races, three winning tickets cashed for $31,240.54 to avoid the dispersal of the jackpot.

Many bettors figure to focus their attention on Saturday’s card and take a pass on Friday’s Rainbow 6. But there is always a chance someone could construct a unique winning ticket Friday and spoil the show, so if you’re interested in playing along, here is a pair of singles to get you started.

Race 5 ($6,250 claiming): #8 Excalibur (7-5)

The best recent Brisnet Speed ratings in this low-level claimer belong to Excalibur, who has finished second in three of his last four starts at this track and class level. A mid-pack closer, the Jorge Delgado trainee ran particularly well over this one-mile distance March 24, when he charged hard to finish just a neck behind the winner.

Delgado wins at a 22% rate in claiming races, and jockey Edgard Zayas (a 29% winner when he teams up with Delgado) has the mount.

Race 6 (allowance/optional claiming): #6 Dr. Duke (3-1)

A gate-to-wire maiden winner over this turf course and five-furlong distance back in January, Dr. Duke ran deceptively strong in the five-furlong Texas Glitter S. at Gulfstream last month.

The son of Ghostzapper steadied severely in traffic around the turn and lost a ton of ground and momentum. But he never gave up and re-rallied up the inside to finish fifth, beaten just 1 3/4 lengths by the winner, even though he was blocked behind rivals in deep stretch.

With an unencumbered trip on Friday, Dr. Duke will be tough to deny.

Good luck!