Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Feb. 10

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $80 worth of picks and plays for Thursday, Feb. 10 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, along with a horse to single in Sam Houston’s $7,270 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Fair Grounds.
• Turfway Park $2,500 Jackpot Thursdays: Place $10+ win bets at Turfway Park for a chance to win your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs, 3:05 p.m. ET)

#4 Aw Shucks (9-5) fired off a big effort over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 20. Making his first start since being claimed by trainer Ron Faucheux, Aw Shucks carved out the pace before settling for second place by a head.

This effort produced an excellent 82 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest recent figure earned by any of the horses in Thursday’s field. Faucheux wins at a 36% rate with horses running back for the second time following a claim, and at a 33% rate when teaming up with jockey Jareth Loveberry, so Aw Shucks looks tough to beat.

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Aw Shucks. #1 Rahfees Man (9-2) and #2 Too Much Bourbon (5-1) are logical choices to complete the exacta and trifecta.

• $10 to win on #4 Aw Shucks
• $7 Exacta: 4 with 1
• $3 Trifecta: 4 with 1 with 2
  Total: $20

Turfway Park: Race 8: $50,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs, 9:46 p.m. ET)

#4 Let’s Be Clear (4-1) showed promise as a juvenile, breaking her maiden at Saratoga before running second in the P.G. Johnson S. over the same track. She subsequently failed to fire in a Keeneland allowance on Oct. 10, finishing sixth by a wide margin, but Let’s Be Clear has been freshened since then and figures to produce a sharper showing in her sophomore debut.

It’s worth noting Let’s Be Clear has high-percentage connections in her corner. Trainer Brad Cox has gone 8-for-34 (24%) at Turfway this meet, and jockey Joe Talamo has won at an identical 24% clip when reaming up with Cox over the last two months. Throw in the fact Let’s Be Clear will race on Lasix for the first time (a 36% winning move for Cox), and Let’s Be Clear looks live to defeat morning line favorites #6 Promises to Dance (6-5) and #8 Nay Say (5-2).

• $20 to win on #4 Let’s Be Clear
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 6,8 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 9: $40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/8 miles, 10:16 p.m. ET)

There’s barely any speed entered in this allowance route for older horses, which may lend an insurmountable advantage to #6 Buck Moon (2-1).

Conditioned by Larry Rivelli (who has gone 9-for-21, 43% at Turfway this meet), Buck Moon is 2-for-2 at Turfway Park. After wiring a Dec. 5 maiden special weight racing one mile, Buck Moon came back to crush an allowance over the same distance, leading all the way to smash his pursuers by 6 3/4 lengths.

Buck Moon brings strong Brisnet Speed ratings to the fold and retains the services of Turfway’s leading jockey Gerrardo Corrales, who has gone 6-for-12 (50%) riding for Rivelli over the last two months. If Buck Moon shakes loose up front, he can cruise to an easy victory over #3 Carom (3-1), the only other obvious pace player in the main body of Thursday’s field.

• $20 to win on #6 Buck Moon
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 3
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Sam Houston, Race 4: $7,270 Pick 6 carryover (6:18 p.m. ET)

Many racetracks in North America have transitioned away from offering traditional Pick 6 wagers, instead focusing on inexpensive jackpot-style options.

But Sam Houston has gone against the grain with their Space City Pick 6. With 50 cents ranking as the minimum bet amount, it’s less expensive to play than $1 or $2 Pick 6 wagers. But the Space City Pick 6 is traditional in style, so any carryover is split equally among all winning bettors—no unique winning ticket required. Throw in the fact the takeout rate is just 12%, and the Space City Pick 6 is an appealing bet.

Thursday’s Space City Pick 6 is especially enticing because there’s a $7,270 carryover up for grabs. A challenging sequence is on the table, but if you’re willing to single #4 Luck Is Fickle (2-1) in Race 9, we should be able to keep costs at a reasonable level.

Race 9 is a maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies racing one mile on turf, conditions that should suit Luck Is Fickle just fine. The daughter of More Than Ready debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong grass sprint at Fair Grounds two months ago, where she tracked the early tempo before weakening slightly to finish fifth.

Even in defeat, Luck Is Fickle posted a competitive 71 Brisnet Speed rating. She figures to find the competition a bit easier at Sam Houston, and stretching out over one mile shouldn’t be an issue. More Than Ready has sired plenty of classy turf horses, including Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) winner Uni, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Pluck, and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) heroines More Than Real and Rushing Fall—all excellent performers racing one mile on turf.

There are other reasons to support Luck Is Fickle as well. Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen wins at a 22% rate with second-time starters, so Luck Is Fickle is eligible to improve on Saturday, especially after working a bullet five furlongs in 1:01 at Sam Houston. And jockey Stewart Elliot has enjoyed strong success when teaming up with Asmussen in recent years.

In short, Luck Is Fickle looks tough to beat at a short price, and we’ll single her to conclude the Space City Pick 6. Good luck!