Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Feb. 14

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $90 worth of picks and plays for Monday, Feb. 14 at Fair Grounds and Turf Paradise, including a couple of cold exactas.

Picks and Plays

Fair Ground: Race 1: $10,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile, 2:05 p.m. ET)

In a race containing very little speed on paper, #4 Reckless Sergeant (3-1) figures to sit as nice a trip as any. The four-year-old filly employed midpack rallying tactics when finishing second over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 28, earning a solid 55 Brisnet Speed rating. And in an identical race two starts back, she showed enough speed to track the pace.

#3 I’m a Custom to It (7-2), third behind Reckless Sergeant in the Jan. 28 maiden heat, arguably has a bit more tactical speed. But the daughter of Custom for Carlos isn’t necessarily bred to run long, so if one mile is pushing the limits of I’m a Custom to It’s stamina, then Reckless Sergeant can maintain her advantage on Monday.

We’ll bet Reckless Sergeant to win, then play her over I’m a Custom to It in the exacta.

• $20 to win on #4 Reckless Sergeant
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 3
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $5,000 Claiming (one mile, 3:05 p.m. ET)

#1A Kittenofthe Court (6-1) didn’t seem to handle a sloppy track when finishing sixth over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 2. But two starts back, she wired a $5,000 claimer over dry footing at Fair Grounds, prevailing with a career-best 68 Brisnet Speed rating.

Assuming Kittenofthe Court gets a fast track on Monday, she can bounce back at a fair price for hot jockey/trainer duo Emanuel Nieves and James Hodges, who have gone 2-for-6 (33%) teaming up together over the last two months.

We’ll place a large win bet on Kittenofthe Court and leave it at that.

• $30 to win on #1A Kittenofthe Court

Turf Paradise: Race 2: $3,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile, 3:26 p.m. ET)

Speed is almost completely lacking in this low-level maiden claimer, so we’ll throw out support behind #8 Squallsghostmover (5-2). He showed pace-tracking speed in a $6,500 maiden claimer for New Mexico-breds at Sunland Park earlier this month, so it’s not impossible Squallsghostmover will find himself on an uncontested lead while shipping to Turf Paradise.

There are others reasons to like Squallsghostmover as well. For example, trainer Martin Valdez-Cabral has compiled a terrific 15-5-4-2 (33% wins, 73% in-the-money) record at Turf Paradise this meet. And Squallsghostmover has shown decent form against tougher competition, running fourth in an unrestricted $6,500 maiden claimer at Sunland two starts back.

#6 High Flying Tiger (2-1), dropping in class off a runner-up effort at Turf Paradise, can complete the exacta.

• $20 to win on #8 Squallsghostmover
• $10 Exacta: 8 with 6
  Total: $30

Good luck!