Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Feb. 28

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson wraps up February with $90 worth of picks and plays for Fair Grounds and Turf Paradise, including trios of win bets and exactas.

Picks and Plays

Turf Paradise: Race 5: $10,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (about one mile on turf, 4:57 p.m. ET)

#8 Calibogee (4-1) was last seen competing in grass races on the New York circuit, where he won a $40,000 maiden claimer for New York-breds at Belmont before running third in a $50,000 starter allowance racing one mile at Saratoga.

Calibogee hasn’t run since August, when he finished off the board in a similar $50,000 starter allowance at Saratoga. But the freshening figures to produce a turnaround. Hot trainer Bart Hone (a 22% winner at Turf Paradise) has put Calibogee through a fast series of workouts at Turf Paradise, so let’s bet Calibogee to win and key him over logical local runners #1 Blue Azul (9-2) and #2 N. K. Rocket Man (6-1) in the exacta.

• $20 to win on #8 Calibogee
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 1,2 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 6: $30,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (six furlongs, 5:27 p.m. ET)

#6 Temporarily (7-2) didn’t quite stay one mile when finishing third in a $30,000 maiden optional claimer at Turf Paradise on Feb. 10. But two starts back, the daughter of Union Rags ran third in a six-furlong sprint over the same track and class level, beaten only 1 1/2 lengths by next-out stakes winner Miss Hard Knocks.

Temporarily brings strong Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and figures to appreciate cutting back in distance. High-percentage trainer Justin Evans wins at a 28% rate with horses employing the sprint/route/sprint pattern, so Temporarily looms as a logical choice to beat #1 Curlin Blessing (9-2) and #10 Smiling Salsa (3-1) to the finish line.

• $20 to win on #6 Temporarily
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 1,10 ($10)
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 9: $10,000 Claiming (six furlongs, 6:07 p.m. ET)

#4 Club Soda (5-2) clearly loves Fair Grounds, since he’s cracked the exacta in eight of his nine runs over the local main track. In fact, Club Soda has wired his last two starts against $7,500 maiden claiming company at Fair Grounds, most recently smashing a six-furlong sprint by 2 3/4 lengths after carving out blazing fractions of :21.02 and :44.24.

Club Soda was claimed out of that race by hot trainer Jose Camejo, who wins at a 28% rate with new claiming acquisitions. If Club Soda runs his typical Fair Grounds race, he can cruise to another convincing victory over #1 Chapel Barn (4-1) and #8 Murdo (5-1).

• $20 to win on #4 Club Soda
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 1,8 ($10)
  Total: $30

Good luck!