Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 22

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $100 worth of picks and plays for Tuesday, March 22 at Will Rogers Downs, along with a $54 ticket for the Super High 5 carryover at Sunland Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx Racing.
• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta tickets.

Picks and Plays

Will Rogers Downs: Race 1: $5,000 Claiming (one mile, 2 p.m. ET)

There’s barely any speed entered in this five-horse field, which should play to the strengths of #1 High Class Euro (9-5). The six-year-old mare frequently sets the pace and boasts a 3-for-6 record at Will Rogers Downs, where she wired a one-mile allowance on the penultimate day of the 2021 meet.

High Class Euro has been facing tougher $10,000 starter optional claiming company at Sam Houston, so dropping in class and returning to Will Rogers Downs should trigger a strong showing. We’ll bet High Class Euro to win and key her over #3 Billie G (2-1) and #5 Gp’s Amazing Grace (3-1) in a trifecta capitalizing on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.

• $20 to win on #1 High Class Euro
• $5 Trifecta: 1 with 3,5 with 3,5 ($10)
  Total: $30

Will Rogers Downs: Race 3: Allowance (six furlongs, 2:56 p.m. ET)

#3 Dame Plata (8-5) is 3-for-5 at Will Rogers Downs, a flashy record highlighted by a gate-to-wire allowance score sprinting six furlongs last spring. The son of Cross Traffic was most recently seen competing against stakes company during the summer at Canterbury Park, where he placed third in the 1 1/16-mile Wally’s Choice S.

Cutting back to a sprint distance at Will Rogers Downs should allow Dame Plata to begin his six-year-old campaign on a winning note. He’s been training forwardly at Sam Houston (even clocking a bullet half-mile in :47 flat), and trainer Francisco Bravo was hot at Will Rogers Downs last year, going 15-for-55 (27%). Throw in the presence of Will Rogers Downs’ reigning champion jockey Floyd Wethey Jr. (a 32% winner last meet), and Dame Plata looks tough to beat.

#1 Box Seat (9-5) and #5 Punch Em (8-1) can battle for the minor awards.

• $25 to win on #3 Dame Plata
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 1,5 ($10)
• $2.50 Trifecta: 3 with 1,5 ($5)
  Total: $40

Will Rogers Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:52 p.m. ET)

#5 She’s a Bossy Girl (7-2) failed to fire in a five-furlong turf maiden special weight at Sam Houston last month, finishing last of nine. But in her January debut sprinting six furlongs on dirt over the same class level, She’s a Bossy Girl finished fourth behind next-out allowance winner Speedometer and earned a 68 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Tuesday’s field.

If She’s a Bossy Girl bounces back to peak form while returning to dirt, she can beat #8 Patsy R (5-1) and #10 Clay’s Opal Indy (4-1) to the winner’s circle. We’ll play the race accordingly, betting She’s a Bossy Girl to win and keying her on top of exacta and trifecta tickets.

• $15 to win on #5 She’s a Bossy Girl
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 8,10 ($10)
• $2.50 Trifecta: 5 with 8,10 with 8,10 ($5)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Sunland Park: Race 10: $237 Super High 5 carryover (6:26 p.m. ET)

Now, we’ll be the first to admit the Super High 5 carryover up for grabs on Tuesday at Sunland Park isn’t the largest prize pool you’ll ever see. The carryover for the 50-cent wager stands at $237.

But there are a couple of reasons why this is an appealing bet to play. For one, it’s a non-jackpot wager, so constructing a unique winning ticket isn’t necessary to win a share of the carryover. For another, the wager offers consolation payoffs in the event no one assembles a winning ticket.

Finally, this particular Super High 5 carryover is on the table in Race 10, a $6,500 maiden claimer for fillies and mares featuring an overflow field of 10 starters plus two also-eligible entrants. Even counting on a couple of scratches, there are 30,240 possible outcomes to consider, so the payoff for any winning ticket should be solid.

In handicapping the Super High 5, we’ll start by favoring #6 Nicole’s Tales (3-1) and #9 Shadow Jumper (4-1) on top. Nicole’s Tales is a lightly raced filly with just three starts under her belt, so she’s relatively untested. All three of her runs have come against tougher $12,500 maiden claiming competition at Sunland, and she’s cracked the trifecta twice. Descending the class ladder and dropping blinkers (the latter a 27% winning move for trainer Sal Gonzalez) can place Nicole’s Tales in the hunt for victory.

But Shadow Jumper has likewise placed against $12,500 maiden claiming company, and she’s run faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale than Nicole’s Tales. Shadow Jumper is versatile in terms of running style and looms as the main threat to the morning-line favorite.

For the minor awards, we have to consider #5 Sandplum Creek (10-1), who has hit the board a couple of times against $8,000 maiden claiming competition at Zia Park. #3 Lookout for Landry (8-1) is another logical contender after debuting in a maiden special weight at Zia; take note, trainer Joel Marr wins at a lofty 26% rate with horses transitioning from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company.

We would also use #11 Allie R (12-1) runner-up in a $6,500 maiden claimer at Sunland, but she’s on the also-eligible list and isn’t certain to start.

Assuming Allie R does draw in, this is the ticket we’ll aim to play:

• 50-cent Super High 5: 6,9 with 6,9 with 3,5,11 with 2,3,5,11 with ALL ($54)

However, if Allie R scratches, we’ll play the following ticket instead:

• 50-cent Super High 5: 6,9 with 6,9 with 2,3,5 with 1,2,3,5 with ALL ($54)

Good luck!