Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 7

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $90 worth of picks and plays for Monday, March 7 at Parx Racing and Santa Anita, along with suggested singles for the mandatory-payout $147,144 Pick 6 carryover at Golden Gate Fields.

Picks and Plays

Parx Racing: Race 9: Penn’s Landing S. (6 1/2 furlongs, 4:39 p.m. ET)

#10 Club Car (3-1) cracked the trifecta in all eight of her starts last season while competing against tough competition. She was particularly strong at the end of the season—after finishing second in the Thoroughbred Club of America S. (G2) at Keeneland (beaten only a neck by Grade 1 winner Bell’s the One), Club Car finished a length behind Bell’s the One when second in the Dream Supreme S. at Churchill Downs.

Club Car is returning from a layoff, but trainer Ben Colebrook (a 14% winner overall) strikes at a respectable 16% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. Throw in the fact the Penn’s Landing field contains a fair amount of speed to enhance Club Car’s late rally, and Club Car looks like a viable win threat.

The speedy #4 Jakarta (2-1) is the other obvious contender. We’ll box Club Car and Jakarta in a large exacta, which should pay solidly either way if they run 1-2 in this large field.

• $15 Exacta box: 4,10 ($30)

Parx Racing: Race 10: Fishtown S. (six furlongs, 5:10 p.m. ET)

According to data from Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances, outside posts perform well in six-furlong dirt sprints at Parx Racing. This bodes well for the chances of #11 Hollywood Jet (5-2), who has drawn the far outside post in the Fishtown S. field.

Hollywood Jet has made impressive progress since being claimed by trainer Carlos Milian. The four-year-old gelding has won four straight races at Parx with improving Brisnet Speed ratings, most recently smashing a $16,000 starter optional claiming by 6 1/2 lengths with a career-best 103 Brisnet Speed rating.

That victory came over a muddy track, and since there’s rain in the forecast for Parx, Hollywood Jet (who boasts a 3-for-3 over off going) figures to find his favorite footing. We’ll bet Hollywood Jet to win, then key him over #1 Sir Alfred James (5-1) and #8 Mojovation (6-1) in the exacta.

• $20 to win on #11 Hollywood Jet
• $5 Exacta: 11 with 1,8 ($10)
  Total: $30

Santa Anita: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs, 5:43 p.m. ET)

Since 2017, trainer Bob Baffert has gone 11-for-28 (39%) debuting three-year-old fillies in dirt sprints at Santa Anita. This lofty win rate bodes well for the chances of Baffert’s unraced sophomore filly #5 Martini Mischief (8-5).

A daughter of three-time leading sire Into Mischief (who sires a solid 16% debut winners), Martini Mischief has put together an encouraging series of workouts at Los Alamitos and Santa Anita, including five furlongs from the starting gate in 1:00 1/5. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez (a 47% winner teaming up with Baffert over the last two months) is named to ride, stamping Martini Mischief as a logical threat to win on debut.

#4 Musica (2-1), #6 American Heights (5-2), and #2 Kirstenbosch (5-1) can battle for exacta and trifecta honors.

• $10 Exacta: 5 with 4,6 ($20)
• $2.50 Trifecta: 5 with 4,6 with 2,4,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Golden Gate Fields, Race 4: $147,144 Pick 6 mandatory payout (4:50 p.m. ET)

The 20-cent Golden Pick 6 at Golden Gate Fields is normally a jackpot-style wager paying out the carryover only in the event a unique winning ticket is sold. But an exception will be made on Monday, when the $147,144 jackpot is slated for a mandatory dispersal. All winning ticketholders will split the prize pool equally.

Planning to play along? We’ve analyzed the sequence and identified a pair of possible singles to build tickets around:

Race 4: $8,000 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta): #3 Dark Prince (1-1)

Formerly based on the Southern California circuit, Dark Prince has been facing tougher company since arriving at Golden Gate Fields. On Jan. 29, he ran third in a $16,000 claimer over 5 1/2 furlongs, beaten just 1 1/2 lengths while rallying at the finish. And on Feb. 18, Dark Prince finished fifth in a $20,000 claimer over one mile.

Dropping down to the $8,000 level might be all Dark Prince needs to deliver a short-priced victory in his second start for high-percentage trainer Reid France, a 32% winner at Golden Gate Fields. Dark Prince won a $16,000 claimer over one mile on dirt at Del Mar last summer, and hot jockey Evin Roman is picking up the mount for Monday’s assignment. What’s not to like?

Race 8: $62,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta): #4 Tom’s Surprise (9-5)

It’s safe to say Tom’s Surprise loves the Golden Gate Fields Tapeta track—his lifetime record over the local surface stands at 13-8-2-1, including seven wins from his last nine runs. He was especially impressive in a one-mile heat over this class level on Feb. 12, rallying boldly from behind a slow pace to win by a neck with a strong 107 Brisnet Late Pace rating.

Regardless of whether a fast or slow pace unfolds on Monday, Tom’s Surprise should be tough to deny for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Armando Ayuso and Jack Steiner, who have teamed up to win at a 27% rate over the last two months.

Good luck!