Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for May 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Wednesday, May 5 at Indiana Grand, Louisiana Downs, and Thistledown, along with tickets for the $197,089 Super High 5 carryover at Penn National.

Before you bet, remember to opt in to the TwinSpires Build Your Indiana Derby Day Bankroll offer. Wager at least $1,000 (excluding show wagers) at Indiana Grand in April, May, and/or June and receive $30 to wager at Indiana Grand on Indiana Derby Day, July 7. Bet $1,000 at Indiana Grand in all three months and receive $150.

In addition, the Midweek Bet Back and $18K Place Jackpot at Indiana Grand offers are also available for betting Wednesday.

Picks and Plays

Indiana Grand, Race 2: $8,000 claiming (one mile, 2:56 p.m. ET)

#7 Impunity (5-2) has been running well against tougher company at Oaklawn Park. Two starts back, he finished third for a $10,000 claiming tag and was beaten three lengths in an even performance.

In four starts since he was claimed by trainer Genaro Garcia (a 26% winner at Indiana Grand this meet), Impunity has posted Brisnet Speed ratings in the 74-85 range, which stamps the son of Paynter as a logical contender on the drop to the $8,000 claiming level.

He tops the field from a Brisnet Prime Power perspective and can lead the way home, over stablemate #4 Uncle Gregory (3-1) and #5 Down Home Kitten (4-1).

We’ll definitely favor Impunity in win and exacta bets, but we’ll also make a $5 place bet on the favorite. If we can cash $5 place bets in at least four races at Indiana Grand on Wednesday, we’ll win a share of a $1,500 bonus pool through the TwinSpires $18K Place Jackpot offer. If we can cash in seven races, we’ll win a share of a $3,000 pool.

$10 to win on #7 Impunity
$5 to place on #7 Impunity
$5 exacta: 7 with 4,5 ($10)
Total: $25

Louisiana Downs, Race 5: $12,500 allowance/optional claiming (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 5:29 p.m. ET)

In a race that isn’t stuffed with speed, #4 Mangelsen (5-2) is a threat to lead all the way. The five-year-old gelding is a pure frontrunner, with a bevy of competitive Brisnet Speed ratings, including an 87 when he finished third, 1 1/2 lengths behind the winner, in an open $12,500 claiming race at Louisiana Downs in September.

On Wednesday, Mangelsen will square off against fellow Louisiana-breds, which sets the stage for a strong effort in his third start for high-percentage trainer Ron Faucheux.

The only concern is the fact that just 18% of 7 1/2-furlong turf races at Louisiana Downs are won in gate-to-wire fashion, which suggests pace-tracking #6 Reluctant Warrior (9-2) will be dangerous off four consecutive trifecta finishes against $20,000 claiming company.

To take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Mangelsen and receive a refund if he comes in second. Then we’ll box him in a $5 exacta, with Reluctant Warrior.

$10 to win on #4 Mangelsen
$5 exacta box: 4,6 ($10)
Total: $20

Thistledown, Race 4: $15,000 starter/optional claiming (six furlongs, 2:20 p.m. ET)

The eight-year-old veteran #1 Star Mabee (5-2) has won five of her eight starts since she was claimed by trainer Jeffrey Radosevich, who has gone five wins from 14 starts at the Thistledown meet.

The winner of the Scarlet and Gray H. over this track and distance in the fall, Star Mabee brings excellent Brisnet Speed ratings to the mix and hasn’t missed the trifecta in her last nine sprint starts.

Star Mabee has turned in encouraging workouts in preparation for her 2021 debut, highlighted by a bullet half mile in :47 2/5 at Thistledown. Considering Radosevich wins at a 25% rate with horses who return from layoffs of 90 days or more, there’s no reason to think Star Mabee will be rusty.

A win bet on Star Mabee is definitely in order, along with a cold exacta, with Star Mabee over her capable stablemate, #2 Sole Factor (9-2).

$25 to win on #1 Star Mabee
$5 exacta: 1 with 2
Total: $30

Carryover watch

Penn National, Race 3: $197,089 Hollywood Hi Five jackpot

There are a handful of four-figure carryovers up for grabs at U.S. Thoroughbred racetracks Wednesday. But by far the biggest pot on the horizon is the $197,089 Hollywood Hi Five carryover available at Penn National.

A unique winning ticket is necessary to claim the jackpot, so there is a temptation to spread deep with longshots, with the hope to catch the magic combination.

But we advise using caution with this approach, since only 60% of the daily pool (minus takeout) is dispersed among multiple winning bettors, while 40% is added to the jackpot. As a result, payoffs can be modest when chalky results unfold. On April 28 (the most recent day of racing at Penn National), the clear-cut favorites in the Hollywood Hi Five ran first and second, and the wager returned just $64.14.

Wednesday’s Hollywood Hi 5 is available for betting in Race 3, a $7,500 maiden claiming race. The winning strategy might be to favor #5 Dulverton (3-1), the only starter who has never competed at this class level or worse. The four-year-old gelding has tactical speed and has posted respectable Brisnet Speed ratings against $16,000 and $12,500 claiming company at Penn National. A drop down the class ladder might be all he needs to break through with a winning effort.

Among the rest, #2 Iron Clash (6-1), #4 Bolognese (6-1), #8 Straitouta Congtin (4-1), and #10 Liston (5-1) have all shown encouraging form against $7,500 maiden claiming company, so we should be able to count on at least a few to grab minor awards. Iron Clash and Straightouta Congtin, in particular, have the consistency and Brisnet Speed ratings to be reliable contenders for the exotics.

Throw in #7 Notorious Rey (8-1) and the speedy #1A More Level (8-1) for the bottom of our tickets, and we should be able to construct a winning combination on a reasonably small budget.

20-cent Hollywood Hi Five: 5 with 2,8 with 2,8 with 4,10 with 1,4,7,10 ($2.40)
20-cent Hollywood Hi Five: 5 with 2,8 with 4,10 with 2,8 with 1,4,7,10 ($2.40)
20-cent Hollywood Hi Five: 5 with 4,10 with 2,8 with 2,8 with 1,4,7,10 ($2.40)
20-cent Hollywood Hi Five: 5 with 2,8 with 2,8 with 1,7 with 4,10 ($1.60)
20-cent Hollywood Hi Five: 5 with 2,8 with 4,10 with 1,7 with 2,8 ($1.60)
20-cent Hollywood Hi Five: 5 with 4,10 with 2,8 with 1,7 with 2,8 ($1.60)
Total: $12

Good luck!