Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 4

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Oct. 4 at Presque Isle Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a horse to single in the $593 Pick 5 carryover at Belterra Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings (excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day) on every Tuesday from Aug. 2 through Oct. 4.

Picks and Plays

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 1:30 p.m. ET)

#2 Midnight Pirate (6-5) is the morning line favorite after winning back-to-back $8,500 claimers at Presque Isle, but those efforts came running one mile and farther. Midnight Pirate hasn’t cracked the trifecta in three starts sprinting six furlongs, so cutting back in distance is a question mark.

We’ll try to beat the favorite with #3 Abbey’s Snow White (7-2). The nine-year-old mare has been sharp in two starts for trainer Jamie Buhrow this season. On May 23, she rallied to win an $8,500 claimer dashing 5 1/2 furlongs at Presque Isle. Then—following a four-month break—she returned on Sept. 22 to finish second in a $5,000 claimer over the same track.

Let’s bet Abbey’s Snow White to win and key her over Midnight Pirate and #4 Waterloo Sunset (4-1) in the exacta.

• $20 to win on #3 Abbey’s Snow White
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 2,4 ($10)
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 5: $6,250 Starter Allowance (1 3/16 miles on Tapeta, 3:18 p.m. ET)

#2 Declared (7-5) has been facing tougher competition than he’ll encounter on Tuesday. Between June and July, Declared rattled off four consecutive victories over the Presque Isle Tapeta, culminating with a triumph in a $15,000 starter optional claimer racing 1 3/16 miles. He’s since hit the board in an allowance optional claimer and two stakes.

Dropping in class and stretching back out over 1 3/16 miles should send Declared to the winner’s circle over #4 A Cotswold Village (2-1), runner-up behind Declared in the above-mentioned $15,000 starter optional claimer and recently victorious in a $13,500 starter optional claimer at Presque Isle.

• $25 Exacta: 2 with 4

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 5:36 p.m. ET)

#6 Goldblooded (5-1) flashed some tactical speed in her debut sprinting six furlongs over the tricky Kentucky Downs turf course before weakening to finish eighth. Goldblooded is adding Lasix for her second start and figures to find the competition a bit easier at Horseshoe Indianapolis, setting the stage for an improved performance.

There are a couple of other angles in Goldblooded’s favor. The daughter of Goldencents is trained by Rusty Arnold, a 23% winner with second-time starters who has gone 3-for-9 (33%) overall at Horseshoe Indianapolis this year. Plus, Goldblooded will be ridden by Edgar Morales, a 22% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet.

#5 Lily’s Home (4-1) and #8 Southampton Dock (8-1) are logical candidates to complete the exacta.

• $20 to win on #6 Goldblooded
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 5,8 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Belterra Park, Race 4: $593 Pick 5 carryover (2:47 p.m. ET)

Whether it’s small or large, every non-jackpot carryover adds value to a betting pool. That’s why Tuesday afternoon bettors ought to check out the 50-cent Pick 5 at Belterra Park, a non-jackpot offering with a $593 carryover in the cards.

Sure, you might not want to spend $300 chasing a $593 carryover. But mathematically speaking, this Pick 5 looks straightforward to play on a small budget. The largest field in the sequence contains seven horses, and there are only 33 entries overall, averaging 6.6 horses per race. All told, the Pick 5 features 12,348 possible outcomes.

You can slice the number of possibilities down to 1,764 if you’re willing to single #2 Yogurt (5-2) in Race 6. Yogurt is facing half a dozen rivals in this $20,000 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares who have never won four races, and the six-furlong sprint looks ripe for conquest by the four-year-old filly.

If you draw a line through Yogurt’s recent fifth-place finish in a $40,000 allowance optional claimer over the synthetic Tapeta track at Presque Isle Downs, her form looks rock-solid. Two starts back, Yogurt won over Tuesday’s precise track, class level, and distance, earning a sharp 84 Brisnet Speed rating while boosting her record at Belterra to a flashy 5-2-2-1.

None of Yogurt’s Tuesday rivals have ever posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 83, so Yogurt—who has actually posted three ratings in the 84-85 range this year—is the fastest entrant on paper. And Yogurt is slated to be ridden by jockey Gregory Romero (a 20% winner at Belterra), adding another positive to her favor.

Yogurt has some tactical speed but generally competes best as a midfield closer, which should suit Tuesday’s race just fine. Several of her rivals are speed horses, so an honest pace figures to unfold up front, setting the stage for Yogurt’s rally. Throw in the fact she’s already defeated morning line second choice #3 Princesstapiture (7-2), and Yogurt looms as a viable single in the middle leg of the Pick 5.

Good luck!