Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Dec. 14

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $90 worth of picks and plays for Tuesday, Dec. 14 at Parx Racing and Mahoning Valley, along with a suggested single for the $3,085 Pick 5 carryover at Penn National.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx Racing.

Picks and Plays

Parx Racing: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 1:04 p.m. ET)

#7 Imperial Road (6-5) hasn’t missed the board in three starts against maiden special weight company, including a couple of non-state-restricted tests. But his sharpest effort came in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint for Pennsylvania-breds at Parx last month—favored at 1-2, Imperial Road carved out a quick pace before settling for second place by one length.

That effort produced an 83 Brisnet Speed rating, easily the highest figure in Tuesday’s field. Imperial Road is sticking to the same state-restricted class level and retains the services of hot jockey Ruben Silvera, a 24% winner at Parx. Throw in the fact trainer Juan Guerrero (a 14% winner overall) strikes at a 31% rate with horses defeated as the favorite in their previous start, and Imperial Road looks like the horse to beat.

Second-time starter #6 Far Mo Power (3-1) can complete a chalky exacta.

$25 to win on #7 Imperial Road
$5 Exacta: 7 with 6
Total: $30

Mahoning Valley: Race 4: $8,000 Starter Allowance (six furlongs, 2:08 p.m. ET)

There’s a lot of speed in this six-furlong sprint for Ohio-bred fillies and mares, which may produce a perfect pace setup for #1 Cat’s Rhythm (8-1). The stretch-running daughter of Wildcat Heir has rallied to victory in three of her last five starts, including a $10,000 claimer over this track and distance on Nov. 17.

Cat’s Rhythm brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the fold for hot jockey/trainer duo Brandon Tapara and Danny Bird, who have gone 4-for-10 (40%) together over the last two months. Her 8-1 morning line odds are enticing, so we’ll bet Cat’s Rhythm to win before keying her over #4 Star Mabee (8-5) and #3 Drumbeg (6-1) in the exacta.

$20 to win on #1 Cat’s Rhythm
$5 Exacta: 1 with 3,4 ($10)
Total: $30

Parx Racing: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 3:19 p.m. ET)

#2 Undercover Kitty (4-1) is a son of Kitten’s Joy out of the stakes-winning turf mare Judy In Disguise, so any way you slice it, he’s bred to win on grass. Tackling dirt in Tuesday’s test at Parx is an obvious question mark.

But Undercover Kitty showed a lot of potential in his debut sprinting 5 1/5 furlongs over the Laurel Park turf course last month, rallying boldly after a slow start to finish third by 1 1/2 lengths in a maiden special weight. He’ll face easier Pennsylvania-bred company at Parx, which may offset the challenge of switching surfaces. Add in the fact trainer Cathal Lynch wins at a 29% rate with second-time starters, and Undercover Kitty offers appeal at a solid price.

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Undercover Kitty. Then we’ll bet him over consistent favorite #3 Ageless Endeavor (9-5) in the exacta.

$25 to win on #2 Undercover Kitty
$5 Exacta: 2 with 3
Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Penn National, Race 5: $3,085 Pick 5 carryover (7:49 p.m. ET)

Although many Pick 5 wagers at U.S. Thoroughbred racetracks offer a 50-cent minimum bet amount, Penn National goes against the grain. Their Pick 5 wager carries a pricier $1 minimum, which makes the wager twice as expensive to play.

Last Friday’s Pick 5 sequence tossed up a few surprising results (including an 11-1 winner in the penultimate leg), triggering a $3,085 non-jackpot carryover for Tuesday’s card. The last time Penn National raced on a Tuesday, the Pick 5 handled $16,352 even without a carryover on tap. Throw in a $3,085 prize pool, and this Tuesday’s sequence may handle even more.

A competitive series of races is on the agenda, with a total of 41 horses (averaging 8.2 per race) in the entries. If you want to find a trustworthy single, your best bet might be to examine Race 7, a $7,500 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile and 70 yards on dirt. The field contains only seven horses, and morning line favorite #6 As You Were (5-2) looks like a logical choice.

A three-year-old daughter of 2016 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist, As You Were failed to challenge in her first four starts against tougher company on the Kentucky circuit. But she’s been significantly more competitive since dropping down into the $11,000 maiden claiming ranks at Finger Lakes. Under the care of trainer Rachel Sells, As You Were has hit the board in four straight sprints, including a close runner-up effort over 5 1/2 furlongs on Nov. 10.

Stretching out around two turns is a question mark for As You Were, though Nyquist seems to be passing on stamina at stud, so that’s a positive. Just as importantly, there isn’t much speed in Tuesday’s field, so As You Were—coming off a series of sprints—is eligible to shake loose on an uncontested lead. Throw in the fact trainer Rachel Sells has compiled an excellent 30-9-6-0 (30%) record at Penn National this meet, and As You Were seems like as reliable a single as any.

Good luck!