Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Dec. 7

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $90 worth of picks and plays for Tuesday, Dec. 7 at Parx Racing and Mahoning Valley, including exacta and trifecta tickets.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx Racing.

Picks and Plays

Parx Racing: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 12:10 p.m. ET)

#2 Justhappy (5-2) produced a big effort in her first local start under the care of high-percentage trainer Jamie Ness. Employing pace-tracking tactics in a one-mile and 70-yard maiden special weight, Justhappy led into the stretch before settling for second place by a nose.

This effort earned a sharp 75 Brisnet Speed rating, tied for the second-highest figure in Tuesday’s field. Justhappy has since come back to record a sharp half-mile workout at Parx, suggesting she can deliver another big run while adding blinkers for her second Parx start. The presence of hot jockey Ruben Silvera (a 33% winner when teaming up with Ness) is another positive.

#5 Estate (9-5) and #6 Bienvenue (9-2) can complete the exacta and trifecta.

$15 to win on #2 Justhappy
$5 Exacta: 2 with 5,6 ($10)
$2.50 Trifecta: 2 with 5,6 with 5,6 ($5)
Total: $30

Mahoning Valley: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 1:40 p.m. ET)

#4 McGraw (6-1) failed to fire in his debut at Mahoning, but the two-year-old gelding showed significant improvement in his second run under colors. Adding Lasix for a six-furlong maiden special weight on Nov. 20, McGraw tracked the pace before staying on to finish second with a 71 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of McGraw’s rivals have earned a higher figure, stamping the Megan Fadlovich trainee as a formidable contender at a fair price. Throw in the fact Fadlovich wins at a 67% rate with horses running on Lasix for the second time, and McGraw is worth betting to win.

$30 to win on #4 McGraw

Mahoning Valley: Race 6: Allowance (six furlongs, 3:04 p.m. ET)

Heavy favorite #8 Star Rules (4-5) has placed in multiple stakes, but her best efforts have come running long, and cutting back to six furlongs is at least a small question mark.

Rather than support Star Rules at a short price, we’ll take a shot with the coupled entrymates #1 St Patty’s Song (3-1) and #1A Songstopshelf (3-1). Both have won recent allowance sprints at Mahoning, and while they haven’t run as fast as Star Rules on the Brisnet Speed rating scale, the sprint distance can help them compete on even terms.

$20 to win on #1 St Patty’s Song/#1A Songstopshelf
$10 Exacta: 1 with 8
Total: $30

Good luck!