Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Nov. 1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Nov. 1 at Mahoning Valley and Indiana Grand, along with a horse to single in the $824 Pick 5 carryover at Zia Park.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 1:40 p.m. ET)

#4 Quiet Amigo (2-1) is the favorite after placing third in a pair of six-furlong maiden special weights at Presque Isle Downs, earning back-to-back 71 Brisnet Speed ratings. All told, Quiet Amigo owns the three highest Brisnet Speed ratings in Monday’s field and figures to be formidable while squaring off against fellow Ohio-breds.

But it’s worth noting Quiet Amigo’s best efforts have all come over Tapeta. The three-year-old gelding didn’t fare nearly as well in his debut against Ohio-breds on dirt during the spring, finishing fourth by a wide margin. If the return to dirt trips him up on Monday, #1 Leroyisalagniappe (4-1) is a logical alternative to steal the show.

Leroyisalagniappe exits a fourth-place finish in a one-mile maiden heat at Thistledown, but two starts back, he ran second in a six-furlong dash at Belterra. The result was a 60 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest dirt figure earned by any horse in Monday’s field.

We’ll place a win bet on Leroyisalagniappe, then play him over Quiet Amigo and #5 Dynamite Cloud (10-1) in the exacta.

$20 to win on #1 Leroyisalagniappe
$5 Exacta: 1 with 4,5 ($10)
Total: $30

Indiana Grand: Race 4: $25,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:58 p.m. ET)

#5 Kavod (8-5) is the logical favorite after competing in five straight stakes, four of them graded. But aside from a runner-up effort in the Tremont S. during the spring, Kavod was soundly beaten in his stakes attempts, so the class drop might not be enough to guarantee victory.

After all, #6 Ain’t Straight (7-2) has run faster than Kavod on the Brisnet Speed rating scale. The speedy son of Straight Fire threw down an 83 (three points higher than Kavod’s best) when finishing second in a $35,000 allowance optional claimer at Belterra two starts back. If you forgive Ain’t Straight’s subsequent sixth-place effort in an $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Keeneland, his form looks solid.

We’ll bet Ain’t Straight to win and play him over Kavod in a cold exacta.

$20 to win on #6 Ain’t Straight
$10 Exacta: 6 with 5
Total: $30

Indiana Grand: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 5:31 p.m. ET)

#4 Shineonbrad (4-5) owns the three highest Brisnet Speed ratings in this maiden heat for juveniles and has hit the board in four of his five starts. But his best finishes have come in sprints, and he could only manage a fourth-place finish when stretching out over one mile two starts back.

With this in mind, perhaps #5 Jeopardy Theory (5-2) is a playable alternative. Although the son of Santiva failed to challenge in his first three starts, he took a step forward in a one-mile maiden special weight at Indiana Grand last month, carving out the pace before settling for second by a neck.

There isn’t much speed in Monday’s field, so if Jeopardy Theory shakes loose on an uncontested lead, she may prove difficult to catch. We’ll bet her to win and play her over Shineonbrad in the exacta.

$20 to win on #5 Jeopardy Theory
$10 Exacta: 5 with 4
Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Zia Park, Race 7: $824 Pick 5 carryover (5:12 p.m. ET)

If you’re fond of betting non-jackpot carryovers, then you’ll want to check out the Monday card at Zia Park. There’s an $824 carryover in the 50-cent Pick 5, and all winning bettors will split the prize pool—no unique winning ticket required.

The Pick 5 kicks off in Race 7, and you’ll have to bring your handicapping A-game to assemble the winning combination. The sequence contains 44 horses (8.8 per race) before scratches, with every field containing a minimum of eight entries. All told, there are 51,840 possible outcomes to consider, which makes for a pretty formidable Pick 5.

It would be nice to find a single somewhere along the way, in order to keep costs down. Fortunately, Race 11—a five-furlong maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies—offers a possibility in the form of #2 Gabriella Who (9-2).

Granted, Gabriella Who isn’t the morning line favorite. That honor belongs to #10 Midnightonthenile (8-5), who crossed the wire second in her debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over this track and class level. But the 72 Brisnet Speed rating Midnightonthenile posted is a bit below the par figure (75) for Monday’s conditions, suggesting a first-time starter like Gabriella Who won’t need to produce a massive effort to vie for victory.

That said, Gabriella Who may be capable of delivering an above-average performance. The daughter of Flashback has been cranking out fast workouts at Zia Park, including a couple of half miles from the starting gate in :47 flat. Just as importantly, trainer Joel Marr has enjoyed strong success debuting juveniles sprinters at Zia Park, going 10-for-50 (20%) since 2016.

Speed horses excel in five-furlong sprints at Zia Park, with Brisnet “E” and “E/P” running styles winning 84% of such races this meet, and Gabriella Who’s workouts suggest she won’t have any trouble vying for the lead from post 2. Throw in the presence of jockey Miguel T. Fuentes (a 29% winner when teaming up with Marr), and we should have a recipe for victory. Isn’t the thought of singling a 9-2 shot to conclude the Pick 5 rather enticing?

Good luck!