Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of the day for Nov. 3

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $100 worth of picks and plays for Wednesday, Nov. 3 at Mahoning Valley, Churchill Downs, and Del Mar, including a ticket for Churchill’s $2,221 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Mahoning Valley and Remington Park.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Flemington (Australia).

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 4:02 p.m. ET)

Who is the fastest horse entered in this maiden dash for Ohio-bred juveniles? According to the Brisnet Speed ratings, the answer is #8 Giv’em the Biz (8-1), and it’s not even close.

A gelded son of Fed Biz, Giv’em the Biz never fired in his debut at Belterra Park, easing up down the homestretch to finish more than 50 lengths behind the winner. But Giv’em the Biz took a big step forward in his second start, dueling for the lead in a six-furlong dash at Thistledown before weakening to finish third.

The latter effort produced a 72 Brisnet Speed rating, eight points higher than any other figure in Wednesday’s field. If Giv’em the Biz repeats the feat, he can outrun his odds and vie for victory.

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Giv’em the Biz. Then we’ll bet him on top of an exacta using the consistent #7 Stunt Man (2-1) for second place.

$10 to win on #8 Giv’em the Biz
$5 Exacta: 8 with 7
Total: $15

Churchill Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 4:06 p.m. ET)

#2 Grand Again (6-1) ran well in his debut for a $50,000 claiming tag at Keeneland last month. After tracking a solid pace from third place, Grand Again finished up nicely to gain the runner-up spot, beaten only one length for top honors.

Since Kenny McPeek doesn’t crank his young runners to win on debut, Grand Again is eligible to improve in his second run under colors. The jump into maiden special weight company is a question mark, but it’s worth noting this race is restricted to horses who brought a final bid of $45,000 or less at auction, so it’s not quite as tough as an open maiden special weight.

In any case, the 77 Brisnet Speed rating Grand Again posted on debut is solid, so we’ll happily bet him to win and key him over logical favorite #5 Buckingham Prince (2-1) in a cold exacta.

$10 to win on #2 Grand Again
$5 Exacta: 2 with 5
Total: $15

Del Mar: Race 7: Seashell S. (one mile, 6:40 p.m. ET)

#2 Moonlight d’Oro (8-5) looked like a star in the making during the spring, when she parlayed a dominant maiden win at Los Alamitos into a confident triumph in Santa Anita’s Las Virgenes S. (G3). On both occasions, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro posted strong 102 Brisnet Late Pace ratings.

An injury prevented Moonlight d’Oro from pursuing the Kentucky Oaks (G1), but the Richard Mandella trainee has been posting strong workouts in advance of her return, including a trio of six-furlong moves at Santa Anita last month. Mandella wins at a 20% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and hot jockey Flavien Prat is named to ride, stamping Moonlight d’Oro as a logical choice to win off the layoff.

The Grade 1-placed #3 Paige Anne (4-1) can complete the exacta.

$10 to win on #2 Moonlight d’Oro
$10 Exacta: 2 with 3
Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs, Race 10: $2,221 Super High 5 carryover (5:36 p.m. ET)

The second day of racing at the 2021 Churchill Downs Fall Meet is the first to feature a carryover, with a $2,221 Super High 5 prize pool up for grabs in Race 10.

The event in question is a $10,000 starter allowance held over 1 1/8 miles on the main track. A dozen horses have been entered (equating to 95,040 possible outcomes), and the main contenders are hard to separate.

The key to playing the Super High 5 might be noting the abundance of speed in the field. There are many frontrunners and pace pressers among the entries, which could lend an advantage to narrow morning line favorite #6 Gigging (7-2).

With a 1-for-9 record this year, Gigging isn’t exactly a winning machine. But the chestnut gelding is remarkably consistent from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, posting eight straight figures in the 82-89 range. Just as importantly, Gigging does his best work from off the pace, so he figures to enjoy a perfect setup on Wednesday.

Gigging was tons the best in an $8,000 starter allowance at Churchill Downs two starts back, rallying to win the 1 1/16-mile event by 3 1/4 lengths. He also ran well in a $50,000 claimer at Keeneland last month, settling at the back of the pack before rallying steadily to finish fourth by two lengths. The $10,000 starter allowance level looks suitable for the son of Afleet Alex, so don’t be surprised if he rallies to the winner’s circle.

Among the speed horses, #3 Bless the Kitten (4-1) and #5 Tiz Light the Way (8-1) bring competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the fold, as well as some degree of tractability. Bless the Kitten, for example, employed tracking tactics to dominate a $15,000 starter optional claimer at Belterra Park last month, winning by 5 3/4 lengths with a 92 Brisnet Speed rating. Even better, he rallied from fifth place in a field of six to win a $7,500 starter allowance at Belterra during the spring, so it’s safe to say Bless the Kitten isn’t a need-the-lead type.

So how should we bet the Super High 5? Let’s key Gigging on top, emphasize Bless the Kitten and Tiz Light the Way underneath, and hope for the best.

$1 Super High 5: 6 with 3,5 with 3,5 with 1,2,4,7,9 with 1,2,4,7,8,9 ($50)

Good luck!