Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Sept. 12

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Sept. 12 at Presque Isle Downs, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Assiniboia Downs, along with horses to single in the $2,010 Pick 5 carryover at Belterra Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Assiniboia Downs $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It and Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Assiniboia Downs on any Monday from Sept. 5-26 to win your share of a $1,000 weekly jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 2:51 p.m. ET)

#7 Deceitful (9-5) ran well in his debut racing one mile at Presque Isle Downs, rallying to finish third with a 69 Brisnet Speed rating tied for the highest in Monday’s field. His performance was flattered when runner-up Dawgmentality returned to win his next start over the same track and class level.

With Presque Isle’s leading jockey Pablo Morales in the saddle for hot trainer Timothy Hamm (a 30% winner this meet), Deceitful is a logical choice to beat #2 Bialystock (6-1), #3 I Strong (7-2), and #6 Elsa’s Rocket (9-2) to the winner’s circle.

• $7.50 Trifecta: 7 with 3 with 2,6 ($15)
• $7.50 Trifecta: 7 with 2,6 with 3 ($15)
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 3:32 p.m. ET)

#6 Bumpy (9-5) has placed in his last two starts sprinting over this track and class level. On Aug. 23, the three-year-old gelding employed pace-tracking tactics to finish second by 1 1/2 lengths, earning a 64 Brisnet Speed rating that tops this group of Indiana-bred maidens.

Monday’s field didn’t come up overly tough on paper, so a repeat of Bumpy’s Aug. 23 effort should be sufficient to land him in the winner’s circle for hot trainer Randy Klopp, a 20% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet.

We’ll use the speedy #2 Tay (7-2) and the first-time starter #3 Majestic Zeus (6-1) for second place in the exacta.

• $15 Exacta: 6 with 2,3 ($30)

Assiniboia Downs: Race 2: Manitoba Matron S. (1 1/8 miles, 9:05 p.m. ET)

#1 Spun Line (6-5) is the clear morning-line favorite after employing pace-tracking tactics to defeat #4 Big Stretch (5-2) and #3 Texas Rain (3-1) in the 1 1/16-mile Portales S. at Assiniboia Downs last month. This effort produced a 90 Brisnet Speed rating, one of the highest figures in the Manitoba Matron field.

Spun Line has the tactical speed to work out a favorable trip under hot jockey Jorge Carreno (a 30% winner at Assiniboia this meet), so we’ll bet her to win right back. Stretch-running Texas Rain can complete the exacta this time, followed by Big Stretch.

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 3
• $10 Trifecta: 1 with 3 with 4
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Belterra Park, Race 4: $2,010 Pick 5 carryover (2:02 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Belterra Park kicks off with a $2,010 carryover up for grabs in the 50-cent non-jackpot Pick 5.

Planning to play along? We’ve analyzed the sequence and identified a pair of possible singles to build tickets around:

Race 5: $5,000 Claiming (five furlongs): #2 Beauty Day (9-5)

At first glance, it’s tempting to support #4 Lady Preach, who obliterated a $5,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Belterra last month by 11 1/4 lengths in the fast time of 1:10.95, earning a flashy 82 Brisnet Speed rating. But that effort marked such a dramatic jump forward off Lady Preach’s previous form, it’s hard to count on the four-year-old filly to back it up.

We could use Lady Preach equally with morning-line favorite Beauty Day, but the more valuable strategy might be singling Beauty Day. The five-year-old mare competed against tougher competition during the winter, spring, and early summer, then relished dropping in class for a $5,000 claimer at Belterra last month. After dueling for the early lead, Beauty Day took over to win by 3 1/2 lengths under hot jockey Perry Wayne Ouzts.

Beauty Day is conditioned by ultra-hot trainer Larry Smith, a 35% winner at Belterra this meet who wins at a 45% rate when teaming up with Ouzts. With these powerful percentages in her corner, Beauty Day looks like a deserving favorite.

Race 8: $10,000 Claiming (six furlongs): #2 Prophetess (2-1)

Prophetess looks like a perfect fit in this $10,000 claimer for Ohio-bred fillies and mares who have never won three races. Two starts back, she dominated a $16,000 claimer for Ohio-bred non-winners of two races by 5 1/2 lengths, earning an 82 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Monday’s field. Then she came back and finished third in a $16,000 claimer for Ohio-bred non-winners of three races.

Dropping down to the $10,000 level might be all Prophetess needs to visit the winner’s circle. She has the tactical speed to work out a favorable trip, and it’s worth noting she was favored to win last time out, a significant angle since trainer Hamm wins at a lofty 26% rate with horses beaten as the favorite in their previous start.

Good luck!