Kentucky Derby BRIS Speed Rating Report April 5: Always Dreaming wows in stakes debut
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April 5th, 2017
Always Dreaming became the 10th Kentucky Derby prospect to register a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating this year, netting a 102 for a five-length romp in the Florida Derby (G1), and it was easy to come away impressed with the improving 3-year-old in his stakes debut.
The Bodemeister colt established himself as a serious contender for Todd Pletcher, who added another Kentucky Derby starter when Patch finished second in his first stakes attempt, the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2).
State of Honor ensured himself a Kentucky Derby berth with a runner-up effort in the Florida Derby. The Mark Casse trainee hasn’t won since breaking his maiden over the synthetic track at Woodbine last October and his 2017 BRIS Speed numbers (96-96-97) won’t be among the best in the Kentucky Derby field, but State of Honor never runs a bad race, finishing third in the Sam F. Davis (G3) and second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2).
Gunnevera was bet down as the even-money favorite but never challenged in the Florida Derby, dropping far back during the early stages. He began rallying past rivals on the far turn and managed to register a third consecutive triple-digit BRIS Late Pace figure (102), but the Dialed In colt didn’t make up much ground on the top pair in the stretch, finishing 1 ½ lengths back of State of Honor in third. His Speed number dropped to a 95.
Girvin confirmed his superiority on the Fair Grounds circuit, scoring comfortably by 1 ¼ lengths as the 6-5 Louisiana Derby favorite. Winner of the February 25 Risen Star (G2), his BRIS Speed ratings held steady (98-99) but his Late Pace figures dropped from 112 (Risen Star) to 96 as the Tale of Ekati colt drifted in and switched back to the wrong lead late on the stretch out to 1 1/8 miles.
He’ll face a tough task against better foes at Churchill Downs, but Girvin is 3-for-3 on dirt for conditioner Joe Sharp.
Patch gave a fine account of himself considering his inexperience – he had just broken his maiden the second time out at Gulfstream at Gulfstream Park – and has room for further development. But his inexperience is a legitimate concern in the first leg of the Triple Crown.
Local Hero didn’t run poorly in his second start versus winners, gamely holding on for third in the Louisiana Derby, and has a chance to make the Kentucky Derby field with 30 points. However, I can't envision the Hard Spun colt relishing added ground on May 6.
Here are the top BRIS Speed ratings from Kentucky Derby qualifying races this year (90 or above, top four finish required):
|
Horse |
|
Race (finish position) |
|
BRIS Speed |
|
J BOYS ECHO |
|
Gotham (1st) |
|
104 |
|
HENCE |
|
Sunland Derby (1st) |
|
103 |
|
ALWAYS DREAMING |
|
Florida Derby (1st) |
|
10c2 |
|
GORMLEY |
|
Sham (1st) |
|
102 |
|
GUNNEVERA |
|
Fountain of Youth (1st) |
|
102 |
|
IRISH WAR CRY |
|
Holy Bull (1st) |
|
102 |
|
AMERICAN ANTHEM |
|
Sham (2nd) |
|
102 |
|
ONE LINER |
|
Southwest (1st) |
|
101 |
|
TAPWRIT |
|
Tampa Bay Derby (1st) |
|
101 |
|
CLOUD COMPUTING |
|
Gotham (2nd) |
|
100 |
|
GIRVIN |
|
Louisiana Derby (1st) |
|
99 |
|
MCCRAKEN |
|
Sam Davis (1st) |
|
99 |
|
CONQUEST MO MONEY |
|
Sunland Derby (2nd) |
|
99 |
|
GIRVIN |
|
Risen Star (1st) |
|
98 |
|
PATCH |
|
Louisiana Derby (2nd) |
|
98 |
|
UNCONTESTED |
|
Smarty Jones (1st) |
|
97 |
|
GUNNEVERA |
|
Holy Bull (2nd) |
|
97 |
|
PETROV |
|
Southwest (2nd) |
|
97 |
|
STATE OF HONOR |
|
Florida Derby (2nd) |
|
97 |
|
TAPWRIT |
|
Sam Davis (2nd) |
|
97 |
|
STATE OF HONOR |
|
Tampa Bay Derby (2nd) |
|
96 |
|
UNTRAPPED |
|
Risen Star (2nd) |
|
96 |
|
LOCAL HERO |
|
Louisiana Derby (3rd) |
|
96 |
|
STATE OF HONOR |
|
Sam Davis (3rd) |
|
96 |
|
HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME |
|
Louisiana Derby (4th) |
|
96 |
|
MALAGACY |
|
Rebel (1st) |
|
95 |
|
ROYAL MO |
|
Robert Lewis (1st) |
|
95 |
|
PRACTICAL JOKE |
|
Fountain of Youth (2nd) |
|
95 |
|
GUNNEVERA |
|
Florida Derby (3rd) |
|
95 |
|
THREE RULES |
|
Fountain of Youth (3rd) |
|
95 |
|
WILD SHOT |
|
Sam Davis (4th) |
|
95 |
|
ILIAD |
|
San Felipe (2nd) |
|
94 |
|
TRUE TIMBER |
|
Withers (2nd) |
|
94 |
|
HEDGE FUND |
|
Sunland Derby (3rd) |
|
94 |
|
WILD SHOT |
|
Tampa Bay Derby (3rd) |
|
94 |
|
GUEST SUITE |
|
Lecomte (1st) |
|
93 |
|
SONNETEER |
|
Rebel (2nd) |
|
93 |
|
J BOYS ECHO |
|
Withers (3rd) |
|
93 |
|
LOCAL HERO |
|
Risen Star (3rd) |
|
93 |
|
UNTRAPPED |
|
Rebel (3rd) |
|
93 |
|
GUEST SUITE |
|
Risen Star (4th) |
|
93 |
|
IRAP |
|
Sunland Derby (4th) |
|
93 |
|
NO DOZING |
|
Tampa Bay Derby (4th) |
|
93 |
|
PETROV |
|
Rebel (4th) |
|
93 |
|
CLASSIC EMPIRE |
|
Holy Bull (3rd) |
|
92 |
|
TERM OF ART |
|
San Felipe (3rd) |
|
92 |
|
IRAP |
|
Robert Lewis (2nd) |
|
91 |
|
PETROV |
|
Smarty Jones (2nd) |
|
91 |
|
UNTRAPPED |
|
Lecomte (2nd) |
|
91 |
|
ACTION EVERYDAY |
|
Gotham (4th) |
|
91 |
|
GORMLEY |
|
San Felipe (4th) |
|
91 |
|
ZAKAROFF |
|
El Camino Real Derby (1st) |
|
90 |
|
SHEER FLATTERY |
|
Robert Lewis (3rd) |
|
90 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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