Kentucky Derby BRIS Speed Rating Report March 14: San Felipe post-race blues, Tapwrit ascends in Tampa Bay Derby

Favored at odds-on, Mastery did not disappoint posting a dominant wire-to-wire victory in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita but any celebration was short-lived as the unbeaten colt exited his 2017 opener with an injury that knocks him out of Kentucky Derby consideration. He earned a 102 BRIS Speed rating, one of the best numbers by a Kentucky Derby contender this year, but it was the way Mastery did it, easily turning back a couple of well-regarded rivals before winning with seemingly plenty in reserve, that had observers briefly so excited about his potential on the first Saturday in May.

Tapwrit stepped up in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), virtually guaranteeing himself a spot in the Kentucky Derby field with the 50-point prize and registering his first triple-digit BRIS Speed rating (101). The gray Tapit colt parlayed an excellent turn of foot into a 4 ½-length decision, notching a fine 101 BRIS Late Pace figure as well.

Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Jose Ortiz, the $1.2 million yearling improved upon a runner-up finish to McCraken in the February 11 Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa in which he earned a 97 Speed rating. The up-and-coming sophomore is expected to stretch out to 1 1/8 miles for his final prep and another strong showing would likely send him postward as one of the top betting choices on Derby Day.

After finishing third in the Sam Davis, pacesetter State of Honor improved his finishing position while easily holding second but his Speed ratings remained stagnant as he’s now posted back-to-back 96 figures. State of Honor will need to run faster in his final prep to establish himself as viable contender at Churchill Downs.

Trying two turns and a Kentucky Derby qualifier for the first time, Iliad managed to save runner-up honors in the San Felipe after being dusted by Mastery in midstretch. The well-bred ridgling is eligible to improve upon the experience, and he’s in good hands with two-time Kentucky Derby winner Doug O’Neill, but his 94 Speed rating was discouraging.

Gormley took a major step back after posting a fine win in the January 7 Sham (G3), receiving a 91 figure after retreating to be a well-beaten fourth, and this is the second time he’s faltered badly while being tested by top-class competition. Tough to envision him turning things around this spring.

Here are the top BRIS Speed ratings from Kentucky Derby qualifying races this year (90 or above, top four finish required):

Horse		Race (finish position)		BRIS Speed
J BOYS ECHO		Gotham (1st)		104
GORMLEY		Sham (1st)		102
GUNNEVERA		Fountain of Youth (1st)		102
IRISH WAR CRY		Holy Bull (1st)		102
AMERICAN ANTHEM		Sham (2nd)		102
ONE LINER		Southwest (1st)		101
TAPWRIT		Tampa Bay Derby (1st)		101
CLOUD COMPUTING		Gotham (2nd)		100
EL AREEB		Jerome (1st)		100
EL AREEB		Withers (1st)		99
MCCRAKEN		Sam Davis (1st)		99
GIRVIN		Risen Star (1st)		98
UNCONTESTED		Smarty Jones (1st)		97
GUNNEVERA		Holy Bull (2nd)		97
PETROV		Southwest (2nd)		97
TAPWRIT		Sam Davis (2nd)		97
STATE OF HONOR		Tampa Bay Derby (2nd)		96
UNTRAPPED		Risen Star (2nd)		96
STATE OF HONOR		Sam Davis (3rd)		96
ROYAL MO		Robert Lewis (1st)		95
PRACTICAL JOKE		Fountain of Youth (2nd)		95
THREE RULES		Fountain of Youth (3rd)		95
WILD SHOT		Sam Davis (4th)		95
ILIAD		San Felipe (2nd)		94
TRUE TIMBER		Withers (2nd)		94
WILD SHOT		Tampa Bay Derby (3rd)		94
GUEST SUITE		Lecomte (1st)		93
J BOYS ECHO		Withers (3rd)		93
LOCAL HERO		Risen Star (3rd)		93
GUEST SUITE		Risen Star (4th)		93
NO DOZING		Tampa Bay Derby (4th)		93
CLASSIC EMPIRE		Holy Bull (3rd)		92
TERM OF ART		San Felipe (3rd)		92
IRAP		Robert Lewis (2nd)		91
PETROV		Smarty Jones (2nd)		91
UNTRAPPED		Lecomte (2nd)		91
EL AREEB		Gotham (3rd)		91
ACTION EVERYDAY		Gotham (4th)		91
GORMLEY		San Felipe (4th)		91
ZAKAROFF		El Camino Real Derby (1st)		90
SHEER FLATTERY		Robert Lewis (3rd)		90