Wednesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Denos Grace drops in class

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Wednesday, Sept. 9 at Kentucky Downs, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Assiniboia Downs, along with a horse to single in the $544 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $2,000 Exacta Hit It and Split It at Horseshoe Indianapolis: Opt in and hit two exactas at Horseshoe Indianapolis for a chance to split a $2,000 prize pool each racing Wednesday in August and September.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $118 Kentucky Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 9/13 Churchill Downs NHC Qualifier
• $100 Kentucky Downs Challenge
• $200 Kentucky Downs Feeder to 9/12 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge
• $100 Mountaineer Feeder to 9/18 Churchill Downs BCBC Bonus Feeder

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Kentucky Downs: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on turf, 12:30 p.m. ET)

#7 Tatiana (9-2), an unraced juvenile filly, is trained by Brad Cox, who has gone 4-for-11 (36%) saddling two-year-olds at Kentucky Downs this meet. Three of his winners were ridden by Flavien Prat, two were first-time starters, and one of the first-timers entered off a series of workouts at Turfway Park.

Tatiana has likewise put together a Turfway work tab, capped off by a quick half-mile in :47 4/5. The daughter of Authentic has Prat named to ride, so there are reasons to believe Tatiana is a well-meant filly with a chance to deliver on debut.

Let’s place a win bet on Tatiana.

Selections

• #7 Tatiana (9-2)
• #5 Medinah (4-1)
• #12 Golden Reveille (15-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #7 Tatiana

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: $40,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on turf, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#2 Denos Grace (5-1) failed to factor in her first two starts on dirt, but she fared a bit better when trying turf in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga, racing within two lengths of the early pace before tiring to finish fifth.

That effort yielded a 71 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in Wednesday’s field. Dropping in class at Horseshoe Indianapolis (where trainer Whit Beckman has compiled a 40% win rate this meet) might be all Denos Grace needs to graduate.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #2 Denos Grace (5-1)
• #11 Verite (7-2)
• #12 Gracie’s Lakehouse (5-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #2 Denos Grace

Assiniboia Downs: Race 5: Distaff S. (one mile on dirt, 10:15 p.m. ET)

#5 Dreamin Out Loud (15-1) has won four of her last five starts, all at Assiniboia Downs. Last time out, she wired a 7 1/2-furlong allowance by half a length over defending Distaff S. winner #2 Mechanic Susie (1-1), the heavy favorite to defend her title.

Dreamin Out Loud seems overpriced at 15-1. She appears to fit well on paper against the Distaff field, so if she stays at anywhere near her morning-line odds, she’s worth betting to win and keying over Mechanic Susie in an exacta.

Selections

• #5 Dreamin Out Loud (15-1)
• #2 Mechanic Susie (1-1)
• #6 Clippity Cop (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #5 Dreamin Out Loud
• $15 Exacta: 5 with 2
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $544 Pick 5 carryover (4:51 p.m. ET)

Presque Isle Downs canceled the final five races on their Tuesday card. As a result, wagers in the 50-cent Late Pick 5 were refunded, and the $544 carryover up for grabs has shifted to Wednesday’s program.

Wednesday’s Late Pick 5 spans Race 4 through Race 8, a sequence containing 44 horses (averaging 8.8 per race) and 51,200 possible outcomes. Mathematically speaking, it’s on the trickier side for a Pick 5, so finding a trustworthy single will help reduce the complexity (and cost) of assembling tickets.

Our best single recommendation is #4 Naked Eye (9-5) in Race 7, a $13,500 claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta.

Best single: Race 7: #4 Naked Eye (9-5)

Race 7 has drawn 10 entries, so at first glance it’s one of the more competitive legs of the Late Pick 5. But look closer, and Naked Eye’s strengths become apparent.

Naked Eye has been sharp in three starts at this track and distance since being claimed by hot trainer Brandon Kulp, a 25% winner at Presque Isle Downs this meet. First, she wired an allowance by 3 1/2 lengths. Then she finished a fourth in a $13,500 claimer, beaten only 3 1/2 lengths after going out quick and securing a 4 1/2-length early lead. Most recently, she set a more relaxed pace on her way to wiring another $13,500 claimer by four lengths.

Naked Eye is the only definite frontrunner entered in Race 7, so there’s a strong chance she’ll shake loose on an uncontested lead under jockey Angel Rodriguez, a 26% winner teaming up with Kulp over the last two months. If she does, she may prove impossible to catch.

After all, Naked Eye’s two recent wins have yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 83 and 80. None of the other Race 7 entrants have managed to post a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 81 in their last four starts apiece, so a peak performance from Naked Eye should be fast enough to deliver another victory.

Good luck!