Kentucky Derby prep weddings and the funerals that follow

One of the most popular clichés around the betting windows—especially on the Triple Crown trail—is “if you didn’t go to the wedding then don’t go to the funeral.”

I did not just miss Danza’s wedding in the Arkansas Derby, but I was at the church next door getting stood up at the altar by Ride On Curlin.

I like both horses going into this week’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands and expect both to be a fair price at around 15-to-1.

The trouble with Danza is that in the past 22 Derbys, extravagant prep race weddings have led to Derby funerals, as horses who are shorter odds in the latter than they were in the former are winless in 36 tries dating back to 1992.

If we limit the sample to the modern era of Derby win betting, which I consider 2001 and beyond when coupled entries and the mutuel field were eliminated, then it’s still a zero-for-17 slide.

Each Kentucky Derby starter since 1992 whose off odds was less than his previous race:

Year:	Horse:	Prep:	Odds:	Derby odds:	finish:
2013	Mylute	Louisiana Derby	19.00	15.00	5
2011	Nehro	Arkansas Derby	9.80	8.50	2
2011	Shackleford	Florida Derby	68.90	23.10	4
2011	Twice the Appeal	Sunland Derby	25.60	11.90	10
2011	Archarcharch	Arkansas Derby	25.20	12.50	15
2011	Midnight Interlude	Santa Anita Derby	13.90	9.60	16
2010	Ice Box	Florida Derby	20.70	11.70	2
2010	Stately Victor	Blue Grass Stakes	40.10	20.20	8
2009	General Quarters	Blue Grass Stakes	14.30	10.30	10
2007	Imawildandcrazyguy	Florida Derby	37.30	28.90	4
2007	Tiago	Santa Anita Derby	29.30	14.80	7
2007	Storm In May	Arkansas Derby	30.30	27.20	16
2006	Storm Treasure	Blue Grass Stakes	65.60	51.90	11
2004	Castledale	Santa Anita Derby	30.00	21.90	14
2004	Friends Lake	Florida Derby	37.40	18.50	15
2003	Indian Express	Santa Anita Derby	35.80	10.80	14
2002	Lusty Latin	Santa Anita Derby	47.10	22.10	15
1999	Menifee	Blue Grass Stakes	7.70	7.00	2
1999	Stephen Got Even	Spiral Stakes	7.00	5.10	14
1998	Hanuman Highway	Arkansas Derby	27.10	22.50	7
1995	Jumron	Santa Anita Derby	13.30	5.60	4
1995	Citadeed	Guineas prep	16.00	11.60	9
1995	Lake George	Santa Anita Derby	32.70	11.60	18
1994	Mahogany Hall	Blue Grass Stakes	19.10	16.70	9
1994	Smilin Singin Sam	Remington Park Derby	22.30	16.70	10
1994	Meadow Flight	Flamingo	26.40	16.70	11
1994	Ulises	Lexington	20.30	16.70	14
1993	Ragtime Rebel	Arkansas Derby	73.80	8.50	9
1993	Truth of It All	Lexington	21.70	8.50	10
1993	Wallenda	Blue Grass Stakes	14.90	12.50	13
1993	Mi Cielo	Arkansas Derby	9.30	8.50	14
1993	Rockamundo	Arkansas Derby	108.00	10.20	17
1993	Tossofthecoin	Wood Memorial	15.90	8.50	19
1992	Conte di Savoya	Blue Grass Stakes	73.90	21.30	4
1992	West By West	Wood Memorial	31.30	12.80	11
1992	Ecstatic Ride	Blue Grass Stakes	38.70	12.80	14

In that “modern era” that began this century (and in earnest with Lusty Latin in 2002 since there were no qualifiers the previous year), only Nehro and Ice Box managed to hit the board (both with runner-up finishes), though Imawildandcrazyguy and Shackleford both hit the super for a line of 17-0-2-0-2.

Nehro was the shortest price of any wedding-funeral horse at 17-to-2 to win off his runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby, and he mostly ran to those odds when second to Spiral Stakes winner Animal Kingdom. Interestingly, that year’s Arkansas Derby winner (and my top pick), Archarcharch, also saw his odds drop: going from 25.2-to-1 when winning the Arkansas Derby to 25-to-2 for the Kentucky Derby.

The above chart includes wedding-funeral horses back to 1992 but does not include any parts of an entry or the mutuel field for the 1992-2000 editions of the race. A bolded prep race indicates that horse won the prep.