2025 Kentucky Derby Weather forecast: Rain Expectations and Temps

The Weather Channel and Weather Bug both describe moments of pause in today's rain at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

With a forecast of rain on Kentucky Derby day, patrons and participants can expect increased crowds bustling indoors, but enjoyable event with 151 years of rain experience at Churchill Downs. The early morning low will bottom out around 52 degrees while the near post time high will peak around 62 degrees.

On Saturday, May 4, the legendary Churchill Downs racetrack in Kentucky will host the highly anticipated 2025 Kentucky Derby, commencing at 6:57 p.m. This year's edition of the renowned Run for the Roses will be the 151st installment and the first of the Triple Crown races.

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Kentucky Derby contenders ranked by the winning percentage of their sire’s progeny when racing over wet tracks:

1. Chunk of Gold (23%)
2. Owen Almighty (21%)
3. American Promise (20%)
4. Burnham Square (20%)
5. Final Gambit (20%)
6. Tiztastic (19%)
7. Citizen Bull (18%)
8. Journalism (18%)
9. Sovereignty (18%)
10. Luxor Cafe (17%)
11. Publisher (17%)
12. Render Judgment (17%)
13. Sandman (17%)
14. Coal Battle (16%)
15. East Avenue (16%)
16. Neoequos (16%)
17. Baeza (15%)
18. Flying Mohawk (15%)
19. Admire Daytona (12%)

Official National Weather Service Forecast for Saturday May 4, 3035

Today

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. High near 63. North wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 4am, then showers likely between 4am and 5am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 51. North wind around 6 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

WeatherBug Forecasts for Saturday May 3, 2025

What is the typical weather like during the Kentucky Derby?

The weather during the Kentucky Derby can vary greatly from year to year. However, the typical weather during May in Louisville, Kentucky, where the race is held, is mild with average temperatures ranging from the mid-60s to low 70s Fahrenheit.

Does the Kentucky Derby ever get postponed or canceled due to weather conditions?

The Kentucky Derby has only been postponed once in its history, and that was in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While weather can impact the race, it is unlikely that the event would be postponed or canceled due to weather conditions.

How far in advance can we accurately predict the weather for the Kentucky Derby?

Weather forecasting technology has come a long way in recent years, and accurate predictions for the Kentucky Derby can generally be made up to a week in advance. However, it's always important to keep an eye on the forecast in the days leading up to the race as weather conditions can change quickly.

What kind of impact can heavy rain or thunderstorms have on the Kentucky Derby?

Heavy rain or thunderstorms can have a significant impact on the Kentucky Derby, as they can make the track slippery and dangerous for the horses. In addition, severe weather can also cause delays and disruptions to the event.

Are there any safety precautions or measures taken during the Kentucky Derby in the event of extreme weather conditions?

Yes, the organizers of the Kentucky Derby take extreme weather conditions seriously and have a range of safety measures in place to protect the horses, jockeys, and spectators. These measures can include delaying or postponing the race, moving it to a different day, or even canceling it altogether in extreme cases.