2025 Kentucky Derby Picks: Predictions and Odds for All Horses Before 151st Race
May 3rd, 2025
As of today, Saturday May 3, 2025, Kentucky Derby runners Journalism, Sandman, Luxor Cafe, and Sovereignty currently lead the field as favorites among the betting public.
Journalism currently hovers at 4-1 odds as both the Morning Line and current odds favorite.
Suprise value growth is building to the editor's eye, as well as according to Profit Line, in Burnham Square, Citizen Bull, and East Avenue.
The bettors will be rewarded for whomever they select as finishing second and third with their bets.
Who to note as a BET FOR or to consider BETTING AGAINST due to experience on 'off-track' conditions and rain?
Some of the early Kentucky Derby favorites lack off-track experience and could be significantly impacted by a Derby run on a wet track. None of the analyzed top contenders have proven form on muddy or sloppy conditions, which means their ability to handle an off-track would be unknown. This could be an important handicapping factor to consider if rain is in the forecast for Derby day.
- Burnham Square - Has only raced on fast tracks in his 6 career starts
- Sandman - Has all 8 career starts on fast tracks
- Journalism - Has raced exclusively on fast tracks in his 5 career starts
- While the Derby favorite Journalism has not yet run on an off track, he does have one secret weapon in his corner: his sire, Curlin. This leading sire and two-time Horse of the Year has already produced classic winners in Palace Malice, who won the 2013 Belmont S. (G1), and Exaggerator, who won the 2016 Preakness (G1) in the slop. Curlin’s progeny currently have an 18% win percentage on a wet track.
Flying Mohawk has yet to run on dirt, but jockey Joe Ramos said he was hoping for a wet track for this Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) runner-up. This son of Karakontie has been working well over the Churchill surface ahead of this weekend and Ramos reported being pleased with how Flying Mohawk was handling Churchill after his last start over the synthetic. Horses with turf experience tend to be more forward on wet dirt tracks, so keep this contender on your radar as the day goes on.
Read this analysis for more by Jennifer Kelly here.
Keeler Johnson suggests...
American Promise and Owen Almighty remain in the top three on this chart, but Chunk of Gold slips to 15th place, and East Avenue climbs from 14th on the sire chart to co-first on the dam sire chart.
Chunk of Gold, American Promise, Citizen Bull, and Final Gambit also warrant respect. The numbers are particularly promising for Final Gambit since he’s yet to race on dirt, so any clue suggesting he’ll handle the switch from synthetic is encouraging.
Race Type Stats for Last 3 Years
| Race Type | # Races | FAV Win% | FAV ITM Win% | FAV $2 ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD 3yo STK Dirt 1 1/4 M | 10 | 20.0% | 80.0% | -1.01 |
| Average Field Size | Median $2 Win Payoff | % Winners <5/1 | % Winners >=5/1<10/1 | % Winners >=10/1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.3 | $15.50 | 40.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
Official Current Kentucky Derby Odds
DIRT 10f Track Bias Stats: Meet (09/12 - 12/01)
| # Races | % Wire | Speed Bias | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 33.3% | 66.7% | 5.03 | 2.37 |
| Run Style | Early Speed | Late Speed | ||
| E | E/P | P | S | |
| Impact Values | 1.17 | 2.13 | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| % Races Won | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Post Bias | RAIL | 1-3 | 4-7 | 8+ |
| Impact Values | 2.40 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 4.00 |
| AVG Win % | 33.3% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 50.0% |
DIRT 10f Track Bias Stats: Week (04/26 - 05/02)
| # Races | % Wire | Speed Bias | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.70 | 2.00 |
| Run Style | Early Speed | Late Speed | ||
| E | E/P | P | S | |
| Impact Values | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.06 |
| % Races Won | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Post Bias | RAIL | 1-3 | 4-7 | 8+ |
| Impact Values | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.75 | 0.00 |
| AVG Win % | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
