Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Six-figure Pick 6 at Saratoga

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, July 16 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Evangeline Downs, along with horses to play in Pick 6 carryovers at Saratoga and Colonial Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $6,000 Split the 6 at Saratoga: Opt in and place $10+ single-horse win wagers in the six selected Saratoga races each Thursday, from July 9 through July 30. Winning wagers in each selected race qualify for a split of a $1,000 pool, with $6,000 in total prize pools on the day.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in July.
• Across the Board Boost at Colonial Downs: Opt in to receive a 15% bonus on any winning individual win, place, or show wager, or combination of win, place, and show wagers, at Colonial Downs each racing Thursday in July.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Colonial Downs Challenge
• $200 Colonial Downs Feeder to 7/25 Saratoga KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $150 Saratoga Feeder to 7/19 Saratoga SSBC Qualifier
• $88 Saratoga Feeder to 7/17 Saratoga SSBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Saratoga Challenge
• $100 Saratoga Challenge
• $40 Charles Town Challenge
• $80 Charles Town Feeder to 7/17 Ellis Park Haskell Challenge Bonus Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: $40,000 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs on dirt, 3:43 p.m. ET)

#8 Isabella Gleam (10-1) is an unraced two-year-old conditioned by red-hot trainer John Ennis, a 38% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet. Ennis strikes at a respectable 11% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers, which is much higher than his 5% win rate with all first-time starters.

As a daughter of Bee Jersey, who sires a lofty 20% winners from first-time starters, Isabella Gleam has the potential to shine from an early age. Under hot jockey Alex Achard (a 21% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet), Isabella Gleam is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #8 Isabella Gleam (10-1)
• #5 Lucky Lollipop (7-2)
• #3 Stolen Song (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Isabella Gleam

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#2 My Pal Patron (8-1) has the potential to surprise first-time out for trainer Tim Eggleston, who wins at a 12% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

My Pal Patron is a son of early-maturing two-time Breeders’ Cup winner Golden Pal, who is siring 19% winners from first-time starters. A sharp half-mile workout in :47 4/5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis earlier this month suggests My Pal Patron has talent, so let’s bet him to win.

Selections

• #2 My Pal Patron (8-1)
• #9 Rolling Start (6-1)
• #4 Channelurambition (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 My Pal Patron

Evangeline Downs: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (about one mile on turf, 8:30 p.m. ET)

#4 Play On Player (3-1) hasn’t factored in her first two turf starts, finishing 12th in a $50,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs and seventh in a $30,000 maiden claimer at Horseshoe Indianapolis. However, she may find the competition more manageable while shipping to Evangeline Downs.

Play On Player’s Brisnet Speed ratings stack up well against Thursday’s field, so let’s bet her to win and play her over #2 Restless Mind (9-5) in an exacta.

Selections

• #4 Play On Player (3-1)
• #2 Restless Mind (9-5)
• #6 Mae’s Majesty (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Play On Player
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 2
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 3: $2,864 Pick 6 carryover (10:54 a.m. ET)

Want to win a share of Thursday’s $2,864 carryover in the 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 at Colonial Downs? Then we recommend singling #2 Blazing Bridgette (2-1) in Race 8, the final leg of the sequence.

Race 8 is a $16,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on turf. The race has drawn an overflow field of 14, including two also-eligible entrants. Singling Blazing Bridgette will dramatically reduce the number of possible Pick 6 outcomes to consider, and—by extension—the cost of tickets. And her credentials appear strong enough to warrant the risk of singling.

Blazing Bridgette ran well when returning from a four-month layoff on June 28 at Colonial Downs. Facing seven rivals in a $40,000 maiden claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, she closed from the back half of the field to finish third, beaten 3 3/4 lengths.

This was a notable performance considering Blazing Bridgette had previously shown fine form running long on turf and synthetic. One of her best efforts to date came in a $50,000 maiden optional claimer racing one mile on grass at Gulfstream Park, in which she rallied from midfield to finish second by half a length.

Stretching out over one mile on turf while dropping down to the $16,000 level should make Blazing Bridgette tough to beat. It helps that hot trainer Jamie Ness (a 35% winner at Colonial Downs this meet) strikes at a 25% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff.

Saratoga: Race 4: $166,702 Pick 6 carryover (2:56 p.m. ET)

The Thursday card at Saratoga is highlighted by a massive $166,702 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

One of the trickiest legs of the sequence to handicap is Race 5, a maiden special weight for New York-bred juvenile fillies dashing 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. The 16-horse field includes six also-eligible entrants and 10 first-time starters, so there’s a lot of horses to analyze, but not a lot of form to review.

We recommend using the following four horses on your Pick 6 tickets:

#1 Beach Life (5-1): Showed speed when finishing third in her debut on turf. Her dam has produced six turf winners, so switching surfaces could unlock improvement.

#3 All Star Leigh (7-2): Daughter of Golden Pal is bred for grass and has breezed twice over Saratoga’s turf training track. Hot jockey Jose Ortiz is named to ride.

#4 J’ray’s Jewel (9-2): Rallied to finish second in her debut on dirt for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. As a daughter of Oscar Performance, she’s bred to shine while switching to turf.

#8 Champagne in Paris (12-1): Has worked over Saratoga’s turf training track for trainer Melanie Giddings, a 23% winner with horses debuting on turf.

Good luck!