Beating the Odds - Can Renegade Win from the Rail in Derby 152?

Before the Kentucky Derby (G1) had its 20-horse starting gate, post position for the big race had a unique conundrum: how to handle post 1?

Starting gates are constructed with either 12 or 14 stalls, so to accommodate the six extra horses that the Derby may have, Churchill Downs would employ an auxiliary gate. However, that left a gap where the two gates were connected, which then forced a horse breaking from that inside position to veer to the right coming out of the starting gate to avoid hitting the rail. Introduced in 2020, this 20-stall gate from Australian company Steriline Racing was supposed to eliminate that disadvantage, but has it? 

As the 152nd edition of the Run for the Roses approaches, favorite Renegade has the dubious honor of breaking from post 1. What does history say about his chances to win? 

The Full Renegade

Renegade faces two challenges as trainer Todd Pletcher anticipates saddling the son of Into Mischief for his shot at roses. First, he enters the First Saturday in May as the morning-line favorite at 4-1 based on his last-out win in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. At Oaklawn Park on March 28, Renegade powered to a four-length win over a field that included Silent Tactic and Litmus Test, his second stakes win after his victory in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs in early February. There, he defeated Ocelli and The Puma in the 1 1/16-mile test. 

While his Arkansas Derby performance definitely grabbed attention, his status as the morning-line favorite is not a guarantee of success on Saturday. The last favorite to capture the Derby was Justify in 2018, but of the last six favorites, four have finished either second or third, giving Renegade a solid shot at finishing in the top three with one caveat: none broke from post 1. The last favorite to break from post 1 was Lookin At Lucky in 2010: he finished sixth. Before that, in 1999, favorite Excellent Meeting broke from post 1, but could do no better than fifth behind Charismatic.

Not only does Renegade face an uphill climb as the favorite, but he also faces an uphill battle from that post, which presents challenges of its own.

From the Inside

The last horse to win from post 1 came back when Ronald Reagan was president 40 years ago! In 1986, Ferdinand broke from that rail post, encountered traffic and was toward the back of the pack early, and then split horses in the stretch to find running room on the rail and wing away to a 2 1/4-length victory. Since then, 39 editions of the Kentucky Derby have come and gone, and no other horse has been able to make hay of that rail post. 

Of those 39, the best finish was Lookin at Lee in 2017, who finished 2 3/4 lengths back of Always Dreaming. Dance Floor in 1992 and Indian Charlie in 1996 both started from post 1 and were 3rd at the wire, making that post 3 for 39 for top-three finishes, a disappointing 8% hit rate. Even with a fast track and cool weather for the 152nd Kentucky Derby, the odds are definitely stacked against the favored Renegade starting from that rail post,

Does that mean you should be wary of adding Renegade to your Derby wagers? The statistics tell one story: over time, favorites have had some success on Derby Day, winning 13 of the last 39 editions, for a strike rate of 33%, but couple that with post 1, then Renegade definitely has the odds stacked against him. Yet that does not account for the other parts of the equation, including a sire with three Derby winners on his resume, a trainer with two victories in the Run for the Roses in Todd Pletcher, and a multiple Eclipse Award-winning jockey in Irad Ortiz, Jr. 

Once those gates open, anything can happen, including a victory from post 1 for this morning-line favorite.