Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Juveniles at Churchill and Indianapolis

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, May 21 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill Downs, along with a horse to single in Hawthorne’s $255 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $2,500 Win Ladder Churchill Downs: Cash $10+ single-horse win wagers in selected races at Churchill Downs each racing Thursday in May to climb the Win Ladder and compete for your share of a $2,500 prize pool.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $60 Horseshoe Indianapolis Bet and Set Feeder to 5/24 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier
• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $72 Churchill Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 5/25 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $40 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $100 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $250 Churchill Downs Feeder to 5/23 Churchill Downs NHC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 4:14 p.m. ET)

#1 Mischievous Richie (5-2) is a son of perennial leading sire Into Mischief, who sires a strong 15% winners from first-time starters. The unraced three-year-old has turned in an eye-catching series of fast workouts for hot trainer Larry Rivelli, a 28% winner with first-time starters who has gone 3-for-5 (60%) debuting horses at Horseshoe Indianapolis since 2021.

All these stats suggest Mischievous Richie is a major threat to win first-time out under jockey Jareth Loveberry, a 42% winner teaming up with Rivelli over the last two months. Let’s place a large win bet on Mischievous Richie.

Selections

• #1 Mischievous Richie (5-2)
• #12 Elusive Con (6-1)
• #11 Golden Decree (8-1)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #1 Mischievous Richie 

Churchill Downs: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:00 p.m. ET)

Unraced two-year-old filly #10 Belden Rue (4-1) has the credentials to win on debut. She’s conditioned by red-hot trainer William Walden, a 50% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet and a 22% winner with first-time starters. And Belden Rue is a daughter of Rowayton, who placed in multiple Grade 1 races at age two. Rowayton is the sire of a sharp 14% winners from first-time starters.

A solid half-mile workout from the Keeneland starting gate in :48 4/5 cements Belden Rue as a compelling contender under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Let’s bet the bay filly to win.

Selections

• #10 Belden Rue (4-1)
• #1 La Belle Vie (6-1)
• #5 Valentine Eve (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #10 Belden Rue

Churchill Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 5:58 p.m. ET)

#8 Randie’s Rascal (7-2) ran well when debuting in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the Keeneland turf. She closed from midfield to finish third by three lengths, and the form was flattered when the runner-up returned to dominate her next start at Aqueduct.

Randie’s Rascal boasts an excellent turf pedigree and is adding blinkers for her second start, so there’s plenty of upside here. Let’s bet her to win and key her over #5 Shining Moment (5-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #8 Randie’s Rascal (7-2)
• #5 Shining Moment (5-2)
• #9 Zimomo (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Randie’s Rascal
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 5
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Hawthorne: Race 2: $255 Pick 6 carryover (4:10 p.m. ET)

The Thursday card at Hawthorne features a $255 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

True, it’s a small prize pool, but it adds value to a bet that appears solvable on a modest budget. Before scratches, the Pick 6 sequence features only 44 horses (averaging about 7.3 per race) and 141,120 possible outcomes—both modest numbers for a Pick 6.

And good news, we can reduce the complexity even further by singling #5 Tre Italiani (4-5) in Race 6, an allowance for three-year-olds and older horses sprinting six furlongs on dirt.

Tre Italiani looks like a standout in this seven-horse field. The four-year-old gelding is trained by Larry Rivelli, who has compiled a stellar 8-for-15 (53%) record at Hawthorne this meet.

Tre Italiani has run well in three starts on tougher circuits this year. In a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Fair Grounds, he set the pace before tiring to finish third by 4 1/2 lengths. In a six-furlong allowance at Oaklawn, he again led the way before weakening to finish fifth by four lengths. The top four finishers all returned to post next-out wins.

Tre Italiani nearly joined them as a next-out winner. He led every step of the way to win an allowance sprinting about seven furlongs at Keeneland, but he drifted out in the homestretch and was disqualified to fourth place for causing interference.

Nevertheless, Tre Italiani earned a career-best 92 Brisnet Speed rating, improving upon the ratings the 88 and 90 he earned in his first two starts of the year. He’s progressing in the right direction and should be tough to catch while shipping to Hawthorne, where he figures to find the competition a bit easier.

By singling Tre Italiani, we can reduce the number of Pick 6 outcomes to consider from 141,120 down to 20,160, an excellent start toward assembling a winning (and affordable) ticket.

Good luck!