Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Delaware Park Pick 5 carryovers

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Aug. 27 at Colonial Downs, Saratoga, and Del Mar, along with a horse to single in a pair of Pick 5 carryovers at Delaware Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in August.
• 15% Across the Board Boost at Colonial Downs: Opt in to receive a 15% bonus on any winning individual win, place, or show wager, or combination of win, place, and show wagers, at Colonial Downs each racing Thursday in August.
• 15% Odds Boost at Saratoga: Opt in to receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Saratoga each racing Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday in August.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $90 Colonial Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 8/30 Saratoga NHC Qualifier
• $116 Saratoga Bet and Set Feeder to 8/30 Kentucky Downs King of the Turf Qualifier
• $50 Colonial Downs Challenge
• $280 Saratoga Bonus Feeder Friday to 8/28 Saratoga SSBC Qualifier
• $40 Saratoga Challenge
• $150 Saratoga Challenge
• $92 Charles Town Bet and Set Feeder to 9/3 Kentucky Downs King of the Turf Qualifier
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs on dirt, 1:02 p.m. ET)

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Race 2’s conditions is 75, but none of the experienced runners in this field have posted a number higher than 70.

As a result, we’re drawn to the first-time starter #3 Hidden Rhythm (6-1). She’s a daughter of Upstart, who sires a strong 15% winners from first-time starters, and she’s trained by Brittany Russell, who has gone 4-for-10 (40%) saddling juveniles at Colonial Downs this meet.

At 6-1, a large win bet is in order.

Selections

• #3 Hidden Rhythm (6-1)
• #2 Controlling (5-2)
• #5 Riva Red (9-2)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #3 Hidden Rhythm

Saratoga: Race 8: Skidmore S. (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:14 p.m. ET)

#8 Wood Island (7-2) debuted in an off-the-turf maiden special weight sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga. Despite the surface switch, the bay colt led all the way to triumph by 1 1/2 lengths.

Although Wood Island’s debut win yielded a modest 70 Brisnet Speed rating, he’s eligible to improve while tackling grass. The presence of two-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat (a 20% winner on turf this year) adds to the appeal.

Let’s bet Wood Island to win and play him over #6 Titan Ready (8-5) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #8 Wood Island (7-2)
• #6 Titan Ready (8-5)
• #9 Arsenal Star (5-1) (AE)
• #5 River of Deceit (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Wood Island
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 6
  Total: $30

Del Mar: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 5:30 p.m. ET)

#1 Lunar Velocity (4-1) debuted in a $65,000 maiden optional claimer dashing 5 1/2 furlongs at Del Mar. She was outsprinted early, but she gained some ground down the homestretch to finish fourth, beaten only three lengths.

As a daughter of Essential Quality, Lunar Velocity is bred to improve while stretching out around two turns. The fact trainer Peter Miller wins at a solid 17% rate with horses running long for the first time strengthens our belief that Lunar Velocity can move forward in her route debut.

A win bet is in order. We’ll also bet an exacta using well-bred first-time starter #2 Sudden Impact (7-5) for second place.

Selections

• #1 Lunar Velocity (4-1)
• #2 Sudden Impact (7-5)
• #4 Danielle (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Lunar Velocity
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 2
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Delaware Park: Race 1: $6,684 Pick 5 carryover (12:20 p.m. ET)
Delaware Park: Race 3: $4,227 Pick 5 carryover (1:24 p.m. ET)

Fans of Delaware Park will enjoy playing the Thursday card, which is highlighted by a pair of Pick 5 carryovers.

The 50-cent Pick 5 kicking off in Race 1 boasts a $6,684 prize pool, while the carryover for the 50-cent Pick 5 starting in Race 3 features a $4,227 carryover.

The two sequences overlap in Races 3-5, which is convenient since #1 Federal Exchange (8-5) in Race 4 looms as a logical single to build Pick 5 tickets around.

Best single: Race 4: #1 Federal Exchange (8-5)

Race 4 is a $5,000 claimer for three-year-old and older horses sprinting six furlongs on dirt. The eight-horse field looks ripe for conquest by Federal Exchange, who is dropping in class.

At first glance, it might seem odd to trust Federal Exchange as a single since the seven-year-old veteran is 3-for-73 lifetime. But he’s consistently delivered strong showings against tougher competition this year, suggesting he’s an excellent fit for this $5,000 claimer.

During the winter and spring at Tampa Bay Downs, Federal Exchange recorded a quartet of top-three finishes in $8,000 claimers. Then he shifted to Delaware Park, where he finished second or third in three straight $7,500 claimers between June 3 and July 1.

Federal Exchange has been especially sharp in the last seven weeks at Delaware Park. On July 11, he led all the way in a six-furlong $7,500 claimer that was ultimately declared a no-contest due to issues at the start, including a premature opening of the starting gate doors. That didn’t count as a win on Federal Exchange’s record, but he shrugged off that setback on Aug. 13, dominating another six-furlong $7,500 claimer by four lengths.

That victory earned Federal Exchange a sharp 85 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number recently earned by any of the horses entered in Race 4. A similar performance on Thursday can send Federal Exchange right back to the winner’s circle under hot jockey Cipriano Gil, a 20% winner at Delaware Park this meet.

Good luck!