Betting the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Different Budgets

The much-anticipated 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) will take place at Churchill Downs on Saturday. Run at 1 1/4 miles on the dirt, the $5 million extravaganza attracted 21 three-year-olds in what promises to be a memorable event. 

With larger fields of high-quality horses, there are many angles to take when finding selections for betting. Here are suggestions on approaching your bets with a variety of budgets.

$30 Budget

• $2 Exacta: key box 3 with 1,8,18 ($12)
• 50-cent Trifecta: 8 with 1,3,18 with 1,3,7,13,14,17,18 ($9)
• 50-cent Trifecta: 18 with 1,3,8 with 1,3,7,8,13,14,17 ($9)

$60 Budget

• 50-cent Trifecta: 8,18 with 1,3,7,8,13,14,17,18 with 1,3,7,8,13,14,17,18 ($42)
• 50-cent Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3,8,18 with 1,3,7,8,13, 14,17,18 ($18)

$90 Budget

• $4 Exacta: box 1,3,8,18 ($48)
• 50-cent Trifecta: 8,18 with 1,3,7,8,13,14,17,18 with 1,3,7,8,13,14,17,18 ($42)

The pair of morning-line choices, #8 Journalism (3-1) and #18 Sovereignty (5-1), are each formidable contenders that could be peaking as they both make their third run of 2025. Trained by Mike McCarthy, Journalism is clearly the king of the west after posting impressive wins in the San Felipe S. (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) this campaign. The son of Curlin seems poised to thrive at 1 1/4 miles with his abundance of class, fine tactical speed, and stout closing kick, too. If there is a knock, it would be that the colt has been beating small fields along the way, but I’m not overly concerned about that. 

Sovereignty broke his maiden beneath the Twin Spires in the Street Sense S. (G3) in the fall and has posted a pair of very good runs at Gulfstream Park in 2025. The impressive Fountain of Youth (G2) victor closed from off the pace to finish a clear second in the Florida Derby (G1) in his most recent assignment, and he also gives the impression of a colt who will prosper at class distances, too. Junior Alvarado will guide the late-running Godolphin homebred.

What my lifelong friend and astute handicapper Frank Isidori reminds me of each year is that you have to spot a few under-the-radar longshot contenders to pair with your favorite(s), if you want to make a substantial windfall in the Derby. #3 Final Gambit (30-1) is surely a horse that has grown on me in recent weeks following his stylish score in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park, and the gray could be the hidden gem in the cast. Trained by Brad Cox, the son of Not This Time, took a huge step forward moving out to 1 1/8 miles in his victory most recently, and getting more ground on Saturday will play right into his wheelhouse, as well. He will be passing multiple runners in the stretch under Luan Machado. 

I have long been a big fan of #1 Citizen Bull (20-1), and I love how trainer Bob Baffert has put numerous morning drills into him over a short period of time to be fit for the Derby. The son of Into Mischief was the Champion Two-Year-Old in 2024 and is another prospect that can peak while making his third run of the season. He was assigned the dreaded rail post, and while it’s going to make things even more difficult for him in his local debut, I have faith that Martin Garcia will figure out a way to give him a sensible voyage in the race while likely forcing the tempo. 

The pace of the race will likely be swift and contested, which will aid some of the deep-closing types in the field. Impressive Japanese import #7 Luxor Cafe (15-1), Arkansas Derby (G1) second #13 Publisher (30-1), Louisiana Derby (G2) star #14 Tiztastic (20-1), and #17 Sandman (6-1), who bagged the Arkansas Derby (G1) last time out for Mark Casse, will be included in my vertical wagers.

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